The variety of non-bank mortgage jobs fell in August

In addition to the declining loan volume, mortgage jobs at non-banks fell slightly in August, which analysts say could be the start of a trend that will continue into autumn.

The number of home finance workers decreased from the downwardly revised 391,400 in July to 390,200, but the number rose from 333,100 a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total number of non-farm hires in the US – reported with less lag than the number of non-bank mortgage-related jobs – rose 194,000 in September, the lowest job increase since January when only 49,000 were added. In contrast, there were 366,000 new jobs, revised upwards, in August.

But the total number of jobs in September was enough to bring the unemployment rate down from 5.2% in the previous month to 4.8%. According to Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trend that is expected to continue into the next year is one that will spur growth in mortgage rates.

"In terms of the impact on the real estate and mortgage market, the decline in the unemployment rate below 5% and the other indicators of the strength of the labor market should be enough for the Federal Reserve to reduce its bond purchases," said Fratantoni in a press release on Friday . "This is likely to lead to moderate rate hikes, which will put additional pressure on housing affordability at a time when house price hikes are still very high."

These factors are likely to have a twofold impact on the broader housing market. While rising interest rates will scare off some potential homebuyers, more consumers with jobs and average wage growth of 4.6% YoY in September will keep housing demand high. Intense buyer demand and the sharp rise in market prices continued, with inventories and average mortgage rates at all-time lows over the past 18 months.

Housing supply began to surge, however, and construction spending rose again to $ 1.584 trillion in August, from $ 1.569 trillion in July and $ 1.563 trillion in June. However, the housing construction figures in September were not as strong as in August.

"We note that residential construction (including specialty retail) employment rose only 3,400 in September, a significant slowdown from the August pace," wrote Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, in a released statement. "More robust job growth is needed to help builders run their current backlog, which we believe should help alleviate supply bottlenecks in this sector."

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, confirmed this assessment but noted other numbers that gave cause for optimism.

"Attract and hold – this labor-intensive industry needs more hammers to build more houses," she said in a press release. “The average hourly earnings of manufacturing and non-supervisory workers in the construction industry rose by 5.8% in September compared to the previous year – this is the highest increase since 1982. Housing construction has increased by a little more than 5% compared to pre-COVID , while non-residential construction is 4.7% below the pre-pandemic level. "

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