The number of homeowners in indulgence has declined slightly and has been slowly improving over the past few weeks as the industry waits for more than 200,000 additional reviews in the final days of June.
For the weekly period ending June 29, approximately 146,000 Covid-related leniency plans have been reviewed for removal or renewal. Of those, 44,000 have been removed from their plans, with 102,000 granted an extension, according to Black Knight.
"All told, we've seen a net decrease of 6,000 plans," said Andy Walden, economist and vice president of market research at Black Knight, in a written statement. "Not all that effective, but it prepares us well for what may be a bigger improvement next week as we had around 218,000 plans left for review as of Wednesday June 30th."
The provisions of the CARES Act allowed borrowers to take a COVID-related deferral for up to 18 months. Many who attended these programs in the first few weeks they were offered had a final quarterly review in June before their plans expire later this year.
A total of 2.051 million plans remained on deferral, up from 2.057 million a week earlier, representing 3.9% of total mortgage loans. The current number represents a decrease of 145,000 from the previous month, a decrease of 6.6%. The improvement rate was an increase compared to the two previous weeks, with the number of deferrals falling by 6% and 5.4%.
Weekly forbearance improvements occurred in both GSE-sponsored and government-sponsored loan types. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sponsored mortgages dropped the highest number of plans – 5,000, down from 631,000 the week before to 626,000. Forborne loans secured by the Federal Housing Authority or the Veterans Administration decreased from 829,000 to 827,000.
However, an increase in deferred portfolios and securitized private label loans offset these improvements. Portfolio and PLS loans that were not protected by the CARES Act increased by 1,000 from the previous week – from 597,000 to 598,000.
The unpaid balance of tolerated loans was $ 401 billion, down from $ 403 billion a week earlier. Of that amount, $ 130 billion was covered by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, $ 141 billion in government-sponsored mortgages and $ 131 billion in portfolio or PLS loans.
The decline in the number of start-ups – 9% fewer in the last four weeks than in the previous four weeks, according to Walden – was also welcome news, even if the Mortgage Bankers Association found in its data that the number of people returning to the business had increased with tolerance.
The spike in re-entries reported by the MBA could point to signs of persistent underemployment or inconsistent income among homeowners since the pandemic began. But June employment data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics shows promising developments on that front, which could be confirmed in forbearance reports this summer.
"Fewer workers reported working part-time for economic reasons, which suggests they may now have full-time jobs," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA senior vice president and chief economist. "And the number of workers reported as 'job leavers' increased, which was accompanied by the higher churn rate from other data."