The recent shock report on jobs may have overlooked a worrying trend.
Victoria Fernandez of Crossmark Global Investments warns not to grasp the consequences of the increasing number of coronavirus cases.
"The data was collected through mid-June," the company's chief market strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" late last week. "It was really the second half of June when we saw states like me here in Texas start reversing their opening plans. That number wasn't fully captured."
Fernandez, who manages $ 4.8 billion in assets, believes this is a primary reason for investors to curb expectations.
"People need to be prepared to see something that may be a negative surprise when it comes to the July number," she said, adding that the weakness will show up in the weekly numbers.
Employment figures in June, which showed the largest wage growth of one month in the country's history, were the second consecutive month that clearly exceeded expectations.
The latest report showed that the number of employees rose by 4.8 million. The Dow Jones economists survey had expected a profit of 2.9 million. The unemployment rate also fell from 13.3% to 11.1%.
May also delivered a shocking upward trend as states began to get their economies back on track.
However, since several countries are reversing the reopening, Fernandez is on alert.
"We're looking at jobs that are coming back, and yes, we have made great strides in the leisure and hospitality, retail, and healthcare sectors – all of which were really strong numbers," she said. "But they're all the same jobs that will affect states like California, Texas, Arizona [and] Florida if they reverse all of their plans."
& # 39; You have to be careful & # 39;
Her biggest economic concern: it will fail to boost consumer spending and retail sales, an area that was on her watchlist. It warns that a setback would affect the overall economic recovery.
"If you look at the four states that I mentioned earlier that actually slow down their opening plans, they make up about 30% of US GDP, and some of the states that open up to the northeast make up about half of them "he said to Fernandez. "So we're going to have to see a lot more positive numbers in new states that are opening up to counter the decline we're seeing elsewhere."
Due to the uncertainty, it warns caution and urges investors not to make large bets on the stock market at the moment.
"You may be opportunistic in some of your stocks, but you have to be careful," said Fernandez. "This consumption and demand are really crucial."
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