Workers work in a swimsuit factory in Jinjiang, southeast China's Fujian Province on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.
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BEIJING – Ahead of China's quarterly growth figures released on Monday, most major investment banks cut their economic forecasts for the year, warning that abrupt power outages and a slump in the real estate market could hold back growth.
CNBC tracked full-year Chinese GDP estimates from 13 major banks, 10 of which have lowered their forecasts since August. The median is forecasting growth of 8.2% this year after the latest cuts. That is 0.3 percentage points less than the previous median forecast.
Of the companies monitored by CNBC, the Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest annual forecast for China at 7.7%. Southeast Asia's largest bank, DBS, has the highest value at 8.8%.
Here are the forecasts of the banks for the full year:
Banks cut China's GDP forecast
AT: Reduction to 8.3% from 8.8%Morgan Stanley: Reduction to 7.9% from 8.2%
Bank of America: Reduction to 8%, from 8.3%city: Reduction to 8.2% from 8.7%Deutsche Bank: Reduction to 8.4% from 8.9%Goldmann Sachs: Cut to 7.8%, from 8.2%HSBC: Reduction to 8.3%, from 8.5%Nomura: Reduction to 7.7%, from 8.2%
Standard Chartered: Reduction to 8.2% from 8.8%JP Morgan: Reduced from 8.7% to 8.3%
Banks that haven't changed the China forecast
Credit Suisse: 8.2%.DBS: 8.8%.UBS: 8.2%.
China's economic landscape
This year, negative growth factors have increased, ranging from slower-than-expected consumer spending to disruptive floods. Beijing's far-reaching regulatory crackdown is contributing to the uncertainty, including against indebted property developers and the allegedly monopoly behavior of Internet tech giants.
The strong export growth remains a ray of hope. China's economic growth is still well on the way to surpassing the IMF's global growth forecast of 5.9%.
Analysts say China is taking the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy. The official GDP target of more than 6% this year is well below what investment banks suspect.
– CNBC's Gabrielle See contributed to this report.