Mortgage and refinancing charges right this moment, 9/28/2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. But only by the smallest measurable amount.

Hopes that yesterday's tiny decline would mark an end to recent rises were dashed this morning. because Mortgage rates are likely to rise again today, possibly quite sharply.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years
+ 0.05%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
+ 0.04%

Conventional 20 years old
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
+ 0.08%

30 years permanent FHA
+ 0.05%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
+ 0.01%

+ 0.01%

30 years of permanent VA
+ 0.05%

15 years fixed VA
+ 0.01%

5/1 ARM-VA

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Yes indeed! If I were you, I would definitely freeze my mortgage rate. Of course, it's always possible for them to fall behind by a worthwhile amount. And some phases of minor falls are inevitable.

But in my opinion, the chances of further – likely sustained – increases are now higher than they have been in many months.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield climbed from 1.48% to 1.56%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices elevated to $ 76.19 from $ 75.55 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices fell to $ 1,735 from $ 1,752 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Indexfrom 34 inches to 35 inches higher From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

Mortgage rates tend to overshadow 10-year Treasury note returns. It's not a perfect relationship. But it's one that is undeniably close.

That's partly because both that yield and rate are largely determined by trading different types of bonds: US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. And these two compete for similar buyers and sellers in similar areas.

Last Friday, an analyst, Danielle Shay, Simpler Trading's options director, told CNBC that she believed 10-year government bond yields could soon surpass 1.7%. They closed at 1.32% a week ago today. And they were up 1.56% this morning at 10 a.m. ET. Assuming that mortgage rates follow a similar course, they could continue to rise sharply.

In fact, that mortgage rate was 3% a week ago, according to the Mortgage News Daily archives. And an increase in line with what Ms. Shay predicts for US Treasury bond yields would bring them to 3.84% pretty soon.

Drivers of these changes

Yesterday I listed the top three drivers of higher mortgage rates. And two of them have deteriorated in the last 24 hours at these prices:

Federal Reserve Throttling – Nothing has changed since yesterday. And most are still expecting an announcement on November 3rd. With the tapering, the Fed will end its program that has kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 18 months
The Senate yesterday rejected a bill to raise the debt ceiling, and opponents vowed to continue their opposition. If the current debt ceiling remains in place, the US could default on its debts within weeks. And that would very likely make all forms of borrowing, including mortgages, more expensive
Reported new cases of COVID-19 fell a whopping 33% in the 14 days ending September 27, according to The New York Times. This is great for public health, but investor fears about the economic impact of the pandemic were another factor that kept mortgage rates low. And these fears are currently disappearing

True, we cannot be sure that something really terrible won't happen that overwhelms everyone and drives these sentences down. But relatively unlikely.

Read the weekend edition of this daily report from last Saturday.


The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.

However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Freddies September 23rd Report puts this weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 2.86% the previous week. But that doesn't reflect the sharp increase on the day it was released. Expect a rate of 3% + tomorrow.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.

Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (September 29, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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