Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. But it was a modest increase and far from as damaging as it first seemed possible that morning. Little graces.
There can be a pause in the seemingly relentless climbs. because Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. But it is too early to do more than hope for a sustainable change of direction.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Mortgage rates have fallen only five times since September 1, and all but one have been tiny, according to the Mortgage News Daily archives. But the increases over that period were larger and more frequent. As a result, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate rose from 2.92% at the beginning of the month to 3.16%.
So I suggest that you lock your installment soon. Of course, that doesn't mean today that the falls that likely came first will happen. But it is far from clear that this will continue for a long time.
Yes, it is possible that prices will fall again on a sustained basis. But I think that is much less likely than that it will continue to rise.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield dropped from 1.56% to 1.50%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 74.64 from $ 76.19 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices up to $ 1,738 of $ 1,735 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Decreased from 35 to 28 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 29, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Yesterday, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman explained in an e-newsletter for the New York Times why the possibility of not raising the debt ceiling in a timely manner is so serious:
… the crisis could be very serious. It's not just about the federal government running out of money forcing basic services to be cut. US Treasury bonds play an essential role in the global financial system as Treasury bonds are used as collateral in financial transactions around the world. During the brief Covid-induced financial panic in March 2020, short-term government bond rates even went negative as frightened investors amassed the safest assets they could imagine. Make US debt insecure – make the US government an unreliable counterparty as its ability to pay its bills depends on the whims of an irresponsible opposition party – and disrupting world markets could be devastating.
Now you can see Professor. Krugman as a partisan. He would probably agree, although I suspect he would argue that his opinions are based on his factual analysis. But what he says there is not controversial. And it will be hard to find someone in academia or on Wall Street who doesn't believe that the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling will be somewhere between catastrophic and apocalyptic.
Yesterday Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen chose the adjective "catastrophic". We could see a government lockdown starting this Friday. But the more serious consequences are likely if the US defaults on its debt. And Ms. Yellen estimates that this deadline is likely October 18th.
In the case of mortgage rates, failure to raise the cap in this way is likely to lead to further increases. Indeed, the cost of borrowing is likely to rise across the board, not just on mortgages. Existing fixed-rate mortgages will of course remain unaffected. But if the worst happens, it will almost certainly have an impact on new and existing adjustable rate loans.
Other upward pressure on mortgage rates
In addition to the debt ceiling, there are two other factors that drive up mortgage rates.
The first is that the Federal Reserve is continuing to signal that it will begin “downsizing” on November 3rd its program of keeping mortgage rates artificially low. Chances are that most of the increases in these rates we've seen in the past few weeks were due to that intent.
The second force driving mortgage rates up is the continued decline in the number of new COVID-19 infections we've seen lately. Investors who feared the economic impact of the pandemic are more optimistic about the future. And mortgage rates are almost always higher when the economy is doing well.
You might see these two forces, plus the debt ceiling threat, as the perfect storm that is very likely to keep mortgage rates high. It's true, nothing is impossible and something monumental could emerge that pushes them back. But that's pretty unlikely.
Read the weekend edition of this daily report from last Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies September 23rd Report puts this weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 2.86% the previous week. But that doesn't reflect the sharp increase on the day it was released.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 29, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.