Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose modestly yesterday after two days of decline. They haven't hit their recent high yet, but they're not far off. However, let's keep this in mind. There have been very few times in history where you could have found interest rates as low as they are today.
As of this morning it looks like it Mortgage rates could be higher today. But yesterday was the last in a series of days when these courses started in one direction and then changed course or rate of acceleration. So don't take my daily predictions too seriously.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 20 years fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed
30 year solid FHA
15 year solid FHA
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years solid VA
15 years solid VA
5/1 ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yesterday's surge doesn't necessarily mean I was right that the recent declines were just a blip. But it doesn't hurt my case. And barring extraordinary events, I still expect mortgage rates to rise slowly for a long time.
Therefore, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today's mortgage rates
Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:
the Yield on 10-year treasury bills increased from 1.74% to 1.75%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were mostly lower. (Good for mortgage interest.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices rose to $82.79 from $82.64 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices barely moved, rising to $1,822 from $1,821 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — Decreased from 62 to 50 from 100. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and switch to stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what was going to happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to be slightly higher today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest fare. Start here (01/14/2022)
Important information about today's mortgage interest rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as those for purchases.
There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
This morning's December retail sales came in much worse than expected at -1.9% compared to November. And that suggests the economic recovery could struggle as COVID-19 bites harder.
Investors have recently reacted unusually to economic reports. Sometimes they react sharply, only to later seem to change their minds. On other occasions it has taken them hours or days to fully process the new data. So we may have to wait and see how today's numbers play out.
Markets are likely to be distracted today as earnings season begins. Then large companies publish their earnings for the previous quarter. And today's focus might be mostly on the banks doing that this morning.
Overall, I expect mortgage rates to continue to rise in response to three forces:
Optimism about Omicron variant's impact on COVID-19 pandemic – It's possible we're closer to herd immunity than seemed possible until recently, although the science is far from conclusive. Highest Inflation Rate Since 1982 – Bond investors hate high inflation. And they largely determine mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve is halting its pandemic-era stimulus programs, including low interest rates and asset purchases aimed at keeping mortgage rates artificially low
Of course, the future is never certain. And something big could happen that changes everything and brings mortgage rates down. A new and more harmful COVID-19 variant could emerge. We could go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The stock market could crash. All this (and more) is possible. But they currently look unlikely.
For a longer look at what's driving mortgage rates, including why markets are bullish on Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rates report.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.
The last weekly record low was on Jan. 7 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, although not consistently.
Freddies 13th January Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.45% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 3.22% of the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on December 20th and the MBAs on December 21st.
Freddie's was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we might not get another one of these until later this month. And his numbers are already looking stale.
forecasterQ4/21Q1/22Q2/22Q3/22Fannie Mae3.1%3.1%3.2%3.3%Freddie Mac3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6% MBA3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%
However, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
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Mortgage interest methodology
Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.