Mortgage and refinancing charges immediately, 09/30/2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. But only by the smallest measurable amount. Of course, these rates remain incredibly low by historical standards. But they are significantly higher than they were a few weeks ago.

The development of mortgage rates today is unpredictable. That's because they're likely almost entirely dependent on events later on Capitol Hill. And no one has any idea how they'll turn out. But for what it's worth, these awards were remarkable higher first thing.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 30, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years

Conventionally fixed for 15 years

Conventional 20 years old

Conventionally fixed for 10 years

30 years permanent FHA

Fixed FTA for 15 years
+ 0.01%

+ 0.03%

30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA
+ 0.02%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 30, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

It's too early to assume yesterday's tiny drop in mortgage rates is significant. I've been saying for a few weeks now that the occasional days and periods of falls are inevitable, regardless of the underlying trend.

So it is more than possible that yesterday's decline (and all subsequent ones) are simply a breather in the bond markets before they continue to drive higher in yields and mortgage rates. And I suspect that it is.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield climbed from 1.50% to 1.54%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 73.37 from $ 74.64 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices Inches up to $ 1,739 of $ 1,738 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Indexfrom 28. increased to 31 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But even with this restriction Mortgage rates today are very unpredictable.

Find and lock a cheap rate (September 30, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today and so forth

Today is a hugely important one for mortgage rates. Because the events in Congress will decide later whether they rise or fall, perhaps even significantly.

Last night, the Washington Post (Paywall) referred to "the sheer volume of legislative activity on Capitol Hill" today. And it summed up what's at stake:

President (Joe) Biden and the Democrats in Congress lashed out in the final hours leading up to Thursday's key votes to salvage a signature economic initiative and prevent a government shutdown, hoping to quell a rebellion within their own party and the Last minute Republicans concerns about a separate spending bill.

Of course, no one can be sure how this will turn out. In fact, we cannot be sure how the markets will react.

A success for the president would avert a government deadlock tomorrow and raise the debt ceiling, at least temporarily. And markets would welcome his $ 1 trillion infrastructure plan to be passed.

All of this would improve the economic outlook, which would normally drive up mortgage rates. On the flip side, failure across the board would worsen that outlook and likely lower those interest rates.

But failure to raise the debt ceiling could also push these rates higher. Because with the possibility of US default looming (October 18th is the current date that this would likely start), you would normally expect higher borrowing costs in general, including mortgages. Conversely, investors could lower these rates out of sheer relief if this potentially catastrophic risk were to be avoided.

So this is really a wait and see day.

Sustained lower interest rates unlikely

But whatever happens to the debt ceiling, two other forces remain that are driving up mortgage rates.

First, the Federal Reserve will most likely begin tapering its quantitative easing (easy money) program on November 3rd. For the past 18 months, this has kept mortgage rates artificially low. And as it is being withdrawn, it is almost inevitable that those rates will go up. In fact, the rises we've seen over the past few weeks are mainly due to the Fed's signaling November 3rd and investors moving in anticipation of it.

Second, infection rates for COVID-19 continue to drop unexpectedly. This allayed investor fears about the extent of the economic damage the pandemic could wreak. That too drives up mortgage interest rates.

These two forces are why I expect higher mortgage rates in the coming weeks. If the debt ceiling is raised today, maybe that could give us some breathing space. But I'm afraid it will only be short.

As always, I have to mention that a sustained and significant decrease in these rates is never impossible. But it would probably take a major event to deliver. And one of them looks very unlikely at the moment.

Read the weekend edition of this daily report from last Saturday.

Recently – Updated today

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.

However, as of April, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.

Freddies 30. September Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.01% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.88% the previous week. Personally, I am surprised that the increase was so modest because other sources suggest a stronger one.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.

Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new plan (September 30, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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