Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose noticeably last Friday. I did not expect that. And I examined the likely reasons in last Saturday's weekend edition of this column. Of course, these rates remain remarkably low by all but the most recent standards.
There may be better news this morning. because Mortgage rates are likely to fall today.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 20, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 20, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
It is too early to assume that the hikes last Thursday and Friday will be more than just temporary failures. However, they show that mortgage rates are no longer constrained by their narrow range that lasts for months.
However, the risks associated with floating are growing. Wednesday's Federal Reserve press conference could (but probably won't) be a turning point for these rates. And the chances of Congress making policy on the debt ceiling are increasing. (More below.)
So I've changed my personal rate lock recommendations to take new risks into account. But I can change it again on Thursday if this Fed event is a wet squib:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.38% to 1.33%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were significantly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices decreased to $ 71.01 from $ 71.85 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices Inches up to $ 1,757 of $ 1,752 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – plunged from 40 to 24 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 20, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
A crisis in the Chinese real estate market spooked equity markets this morning. And that seems to be flowing into the bond markets and from there into mortgage rates.
The economic reports scheduled for this week are unlikely to move mortgage rates far. But Wednesday's Fed press conference could.
It all depends on what is said then. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announces that he will soon begin to slow and eventually taper mortgage rates to keep mortgage rates artificially low, even if the start of tapering is delayed .
Personally, I doubt he'll make that announcement. But others disagree. And there is certainly an opinion within the Fed that thinks it should. So don't underestimate the risk.
The responsibility for the other growing risk of low mortgage rates rests with Congress. Sometime in mid-October, the US government will run out of money. And there are politically driven maneuvers around raising the debt ceiling that I mentioned last week.
It is important to realize that the debt ceiling only allows the Treasury Department to borrow enough money to pay for things that Congress has already approved. Because of this, as far as I know, the US is the only nation on earth that separates the cap from the spending laws. Elsewhere, an executive is empowered by each of these laws to borrow the sums required.
The last time the debt ceiling became political football was in 2011. Those who didn't want to increase it eventually gave in. But when it got to the brink, the US credit rating was reduced and interest rates skyrocketed. History is unlikely to repeat itself in the next few weeks.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. And interest rates have barely moved lately. Freddies 16th September Report sets up this weekly average 2.86% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low from 2.88% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 20, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.