Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. It was a welcome relief after much bigger climbs late last week. But of course the current interest rates remain extraordinarily low.
So far this morning Mortgage rates are likely to stay stable today or stay a few inches lower. But the markets have been particularly volatile in the past few days and there are no guarantees.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 21, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 21, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Tomorrow's Federal Reserve press conference could prove crucial to mortgage rates. And low interest rates are exposed to other risks.
Of course, there are other possible contingencies that could drag these rates down. But I'm assuming they are less likely to occur than those that have the potential to push them higher.
So my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield decreased from 1.33% to 1.32%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices decreased to $ 70.68 from $ 71.01 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices up to $ 1,775 of $ 1,757 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Inches to 25 by 24 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or only drop a few inches. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 21, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy body – the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC – begins a two-day meeting this morning. And at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow, it will make a statement and hold a press conference 30 minutes later. The world awaits those with bated breath.
A Bloomberg poll of economists released on September 17 found that the consensus among respondents was:
The Federal Reserve will likely hint at its meeting that it will cut back monthly security purchases and make a formal announcement in November.
How does this affect mortgage rates?
These security purchases include the $ 40 billion monthly the Fed spends on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases. These are the bonds that largely determine mortgage rates. And these purchases from MBS keep mortgage rates artificially low. The process of scaling back asset purchases (to zero) over a few months is known as tapering.
The last time the Fed announced in 2013 that it would be scaling back a similar asset purchase program. And mortgage rates rose significantly – and stayed higher – after that announcement.
Note that investors didn't wait for the tapering to actually begin. They responded immediately to the announcement, though the rejuvenation didn't begin until months later.
The Fed hopes it has done enough to avoid repeating this time around. It has gradually softened the markets by signaling that tapering will be announced this year. And its senior officials are allowed to publicly discuss possible launch dates lest the announcement be so shocking.
How likely are higher interest rates tomorrow?
We will not know how effective this softening was until an announcement is made. And there is a real possibility that it will come tomorrow.
Personally, I agree with this Bloomberg consensus. Because I think an announcement on November 3rd (or even December 15th) is more likely than tomorrow. These are the remaining scheduled dates for the press conference after the FOMC for this year.
But you really can't rule out the possibility of an announcement tomorrow.
If prices could fall
Interest rate hikes are not completely safe. And there are a number of contingencies that could cause the Fed to slide behind and rates to fall, perhaps to new all-time lows.
Most likely, a resurgence of COVID-19 is causing real economic damage. Everyone hopes that doesn't happen. Because the human cost would be terrifying.
But yesterday, the total American death toll from COVID-19 soared that it surpassed that of the 1918 Spanish flu. So we're not out of the woods yet.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, in April and beyond, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. And interest rates have barely moved lately. Freddies 16th September Report sets up this weekly average 2.86% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low from 2.88% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates – Updated today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on August 19th. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 21, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.