Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday as major infrastructure laws stalled in Congress. These rates remain extremely low by almost all historical standards. But they're not as low as they were five or six weeks ago.
So far this morning Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. However, there is a lot on the calendar that could change this later.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 1, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The bond markets seem to be taking a breather as Congress rounds up (or does not) some key items on the President's agenda.
But it is still much more likely that mortgage rates will soon rise rather than fall.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.54% to 1.48%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices climbed to $ 75.15 from $ 73.37 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices rose to $ 1,758 from $ 1,739 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – lowered to 27 from 31 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 1, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
A crisis was averted in Congress yesterday. The government shutdown, which was supposed to begin at midnight that day, will no longer occur. But the financial doomsday clock, which will count down to October 18, when the debt ceiling is hit, is still ticking.
If the cap is not raised by then, the United States will default on its debt for the first time in history. And that's far more frightening than any short-term government shutdown.
Here's what a 2013 U.S. financial report had to say about such a default scenario:
Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could fall, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative impact could linger around the world, and there could be a financial crisis and recession that could mirror events of 2008 or worse .
The last time lawmakers marginalized that cap was in 2011. And then America's credit rating was downgraded and borrowing costs increased across the board. Note that these events occurred even though the cap was raised before the deadline. Just showing that it was possible for the country to default was enough to cause real damage.
Now, a decade later, no lessons have been learned. And should the debt ceiling actually lead to defaults, the consequences would be incalculable. But they would almost certainly involve higher borrowing costs on all forms of debt, including mortgages.
So far, this option is likely to have had only limited effects on mortgage interest rates. But as that particular doomsday clock ticks down, its impact on these rates is likely to increase. And not in a good way.
Other reasons for rising mortgage rates
Mortgage rates may have been falling in the past few days and may be falling again today. But such short dropouts can be expected in all markets at any time.
And besides the debt ceiling, I have two reasons to believe that mortgage rates will rise:
The Federal Reserve has signaled that it is very likely to begin ending its quantitative easing program on November 3rd. And this program has kept mortgage rates artificially low for 18 months. So interest rates are almost certain to go up when the Fed starts turning off its cheap faucet. In fact, most of the hikes in mortgage rates over the past few weeks are likely due to investors positioning themselves before November 3rd
Another driver of low mortgage rates was investor fear of the economic damage the COVID-19 pandemic could cause. But new infection rates have been falling since mid-September, and the number of deaths has followed since yesterday. If these fears go away, so will their downward pressure on mortgage rates
Yes, it is never impossible for an extremely damaging event to occur that will change all of these calculations and lower mortgage rates. The most likely of these is the possible emergence of a virulent new variant of COVID-19 that will wipe out the economic recovery.
That could happen. But it probably won't. Or we hope not.
Read the weekend edition of this daily report from last Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases were largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. Recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies 30. September Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.01% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.88% the previous week. Personally, I am surprised that the increase was so modest because other sources suggest a stronger one.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.