Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose yesterday, undoing most of last week's gains. Nonetheless, these rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards.
At first it looked like it Mortgage rates could rise again today. But that could change over the course of the hours.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/24/2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I still assume that mortgage rates will generally go up. But I am aware that a new wave of COVID-19 could cause them to fall over the winter. We'll keep an eye on that.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.58% to 1.65%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 76.13 a barrel to $ 78.55. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices fell from $ 1,818 an ounce to $ 1,790. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – decreased from 71 from 100 to 60. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/24/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Why was there such a sharp increase yesterday? Much of this was because President Joe Biden reappointed Jerome Powell for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve (well, he announced that he would be nominating).
The Financial Times greeted the news with the headline, "Biden plays it safe with continuity with the Fed." And investors had worried that replacing banks and others might have been less helpful in terms of the Fed's regulatory obligations .
This is what American Banker Magazine said yesterday:
President Biden's announcement to reappoint Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve suggests that little will change in terms of oversight, capital requirements, and approval of merger proposals.
– American Banker, “What Powell's Fed Renomination Means For Banks,” November 22, 2021
Much of the sharp drop in mortgage rates last Friday was due to concerns that the President might not nominate Powell for the job. So it was not much of a surprise that these prices rallied yesterday, bringing them back roughly to where they were on Thursday night.
Mortgage rates could shift tomorrow
Tomorrow there is a small avalanche of market-sensitive information. This includes the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors always study these carefully for clues about the Fed's mindset.
Tomorrow's economic reports include those for core inflation, personal income, real disposable income, consumer spending, and consumer sentiment index. And any of them could postpone mortgage rates if there were unexpectedly good or bad data. Usually these rates rise when the news is good and fall when the news is bad.
However, tomorrow is also the day before the Thanksgiving holiday. And (as much as they like to portray themselves differently) Investors, analysts and traders are human too. So it may well be that many of them are too distracted from their own plans to bring them to the attention.
What does that mean? Tomorrow is unpredictable.
Yesterday I wrote about the possibility of a new wave of COVID-19 infections that will bring lower mortgage rates over the winter. Don't get too excited, it is far too early to even estimate the potential size of such a wave (if one does materialize) or the economic damage it could wreak.
But if you missed yesterday's article, you can catch up here.
You can also read last Saturday's weekend edition for more general background information.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 17th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.98% the previous week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts – Updated Today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another one until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (November 24, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.