Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. That's three consecutive working days with falls.
And we could start on the fourth. because Mortgage rates could fall again today.
Find and lock a low rate (May 4, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (May 4, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
There's no denying that April was a good month for mortgage rates. The first two working days in May were also helpful. But the falls have been slowing down since April 15th.
This means that the benefits of floating have diminished while the risks of doing so remain increased. However, you can choose to continue floating until those interest rates rise noticeably.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury fell from 1.62% to 1.57% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower When opening. (Good for mortgage interest.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices rose from $ 64.14 a barrel to $ 65.32. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,788 per ounce to $ 1,792. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 56 to 51 from 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not hit its former highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that intraday volatility (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature right now.
Find and lock a low rate (May 4, 2021)
Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
The economic news we've all been seeing lately has been so exceptionally good that it's hard to see anything between us and the highly anticipated boom that is expected later this year.
Just yesterday the New York Times reported:
New York and its neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut announced Monday that they were lifting almost all of their pandemic restrictions, paving the way for a return to fuller offices and restaurants, livelier nightlife and a richer variety of cultural and religious gatherings for the first time Time in a year.
– NYT, New York Area, To Accelerate Reopening, Raise Hope and Fear, April 3, 2021
Still, bond investors seem reluctant to react as usual. Bond yields should rise – and so should mortgage rates. But they are not.
Where from? Well, investors are right to be concerned about four concerns related to COVID-19:
The impact of the pandemic on some key trading partners, particularly India. The possibility of new variants of the COVID-19 virus that could be resistant to vaccines. One possibility that the US will never achieve herd immunity due to vaccine reluctance is not keeping up with demand when the economy returns to normal – or a new normal
In an economic report published yesterday, there were references to the last. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) production index continued to be very positive. But there was a slowdown in the recovery rate
ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore noted that purchasing managers reported, "Your companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing demand due to coronavirus impacts, which are limiting parts and material availability."
So bond investors aren't completely irrational when it comes to shaking off the good economic news. But you need to wonder how much longer they can do this if their fears turn out to be short-lived or unfounded.
For more background information, see our latest weekend edition of this report.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those spikes have been largely replaced by falls in April, though these have eased since the middle of the month. According to Freddie's April 29 report, that weekly average is 2.98% (with 0.7 fees and points). above from 2.97% in the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddies updated on April 14th, Fannies updated on April 12th, and the MBA updated on April 22nd.
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new tariff (May 4, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.