Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. Over the past few months, this has been the most common rate that these updates have started. And traditional loans start at 3.188% (3.188% APR) today for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
Happy Election Day! We'll have to wait and see if the following days are just as happy or if they are caught up in a controversial outcome. In the latter case, prices can go down.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 4th 2020)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
program
Mortgage rates
APR *
change
Conventional 30 years fixed
3,188%.
3,188%.
+ 0.44%
Conventional 15 years fixed
3.063%.
3.063%.
Unchanged
Conventional 5-year ARM
3%.
2,743%.
Unchanged
Fixed FTA for 30 years
3%.
3,982%.
+ 0.76%
Fixed FTA for 15 years
2.25%.
3.191%.
Unchanged
5 years ARM FHA
2.5%.
3,239%.
Unchanged
30 years permanent VA
2.875%.
3,053%.
-0.25%
15 years fixed VA
2.25%.
2.571%.
Unchanged
5 years ARM VA
2.5%.
2,419%.
Unchanged
Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 4th 2020)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
If you look at the markets first, mortgage rates could go up today. But they didn't follow those markets yesterday. Will you today? More on this below.
Are the reasons missing in "Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?" (below) I would stand by my opinion that mortgage rates are likely to continue to fall, albeit slowly and uncertainly. And that these falls are interrupted by occasional, short, and modest climbs.
But events this week (and perhaps earlier) could change that view and result in significantly higher rates that could be permanent. Or lower, as far as everyone knows. Read on for more details.
In the absence of better information, my personal recommendations must remain for the time being:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysHOVER when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
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Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 0.84% to 0.89%. (Bad for mortgage rates.More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were again much higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage Prices.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 35.62 a barrel to $ 38.13. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices rose from $ 1,892 an ounce to $ 1,906. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. Today they are looking bad for mortgage rates.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Nov 4th 2020)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today
Today's elections seem to block everything else from investors – even the pandemic. And they are generally happy with the polls' predictions. You likely see such an outcome as a quick way to get a generous stimulus package.
However, what is very likely to upset them is a long, ongoing legal battle over the outcome. Or worse, riots. You hate insecurity. And in either case, rates could fall.
A smooth transfer of power could lead to an increase in these rates. However, the focus will be on the pandemic again at some point. Therefore, the climbs can be relatively short and moderate.
And there is a cushion that could keep mortgage rates more stable than other key markets. They are already higher than necessary as the lenders have managed their workload by keeping it artificially high. So it is likely that only large climbs will be reflected in them.
With so much uncertainty, however, you'd have to be braver than us to guess where mortgage rates could be by the end of this week.
Recently
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new all-time low was set in early August, and we have grown close since then. In fact, Freddie Mac said that a new low was made for each of the weeks that ended October 15 and 22. According to last Thursday's report, prices remained "relatively flat" this week.
But not every mortgage expert agrees with Freddie's figures. In particular, they only relate to buying mortgages and ignoring refinancing. And if you averaged both, the rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since that August record. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).
Notice that fannies (published October 19) and the MBA (October 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddies are now released quarterly. The latest was released on October 14th.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages:
ForecasterQ4 / 20Q1 / 21Q2 / 21Q3 / 21Fannie Mae 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% MBA 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2 %
So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …
Find your lowest price today
The pandemic, along with a surge in home sales, mortgage applications and refinancing, has created some turmoil in the home loan industry.
And that makes it difficult for some borrowers to find the type of mortgage they need. So be prepared to shop further than usual.
But of course, comparing purchases for a loan is always important. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (November 4, 2020)
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Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.
