Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell a notable amount on Friday. It was a surprise. Because market activity that morning was the first to suggest a modest increase.
But this morning's market activity is much more price friendly. And Mortgage rates are likely to fall today, perhaps sharply. Of course, like last Friday, they could change direction. But that seems unlikely.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 19, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 year celebration year
Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 19, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
No, you probably shouldn't lock your mortgage rate today. Because those rates fell last week and are showing signs that they are continuing to decline.
However, they should rise according to the rules of the normal functioning of the markets. And so future movements are highly unpredictable. And those who forecast mortgage rates for a living almost agree that they are forecasting higher rates soon.
Although they need to be interpreted in this context, my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time last Friday, were:
The 10 year Treasury note yield dropped from 1.32% to 1.21%. (Great for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were significantly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices fell on $ 68.72 from $ 71.91 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1 to $ 1,810,826 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – crashed on 19 of 30 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today, possibly sharply. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 19, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
In Saturday's weekend issue, I quoted an article published by CNBC last Friday:
The bond market is not following the script many expected this summer that interest rates would rise due to a booming economy. Instead, longer-term government bond yields are falling, and that can be a warning to the economy.
– CNBC, “The Bond Market's Mystifying Behavior Could Last All Summer,” July 16, 2021
Longer-term Treasury yields are important as they include 10-year debt. And mortgage rates often overshadow these very closely.
We have seen the markets shake off economic data (good and bad) for months. And obviously investors have moved away from the standard playbook for the time being.
In a way, it's easy to see why. We haven't had a pandemic like this in more than a century. And we are all in uncharted territory. Worse, contradicting good and bad news makes it difficult to reach a judgment.
At the weekend, for example, "OPEC +", the organization of petroleum exporting countries and its allies, announced that they would increase oil production and reduce pressure on oil prices. And US dollar futures (and the dollar itself) are rising. Both could help moderate domestic inflation.
But the stock markets in Australasia, Asia and Europe were significantly lower overnight, as were US stock futures.
This is likely a response to increasing global fear of COVID-19. In fact, this morning the Wall Street Journal reported: “U.S. Stock futures, government bond yields, and oil prices have all slumped on fears that the spread of the delta coronavirus variant and rising inflation will slow the global economy.
The highly contagious Delta variant (originally seen in India) is raging in many countries. And the beta variant, first identified in South Africa and possibly more resistant to vaccines, remains persistent in some places, albeit less common.
Meanwhile, the UK government pushed ahead today with Freedom Day, which, despite rising infection rates, lifts virtually all pandemic-related legal restrictions on residents of England. It is true that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (who ironically isolated himself since yesterday after being exposed to the coronavirus) urges caution. But many ignore that. And some scientists fear that this experiment could produce new variants of COVID-19.
And yet …
Such concerns could be behind the gloomy mood on Wall Street and other financial centers. And that could be good for mortgage rates, at least in the short term.
However, recent economic data suggests that the impact of the pandemic has had limited impact on economies in recent months. If that changes, lower mortgage rates could stay. But if the current US recovery continues, all of that pessimism could dissipate. And those prices could go up.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, in April and since then, those increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit marginally. Freddie's July 15 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.90% the previous week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions – Updated Today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19th, Freddie on July 15th and MBA on June 18th.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point of interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.