Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose noticeably yesterday. And falls and climbs in the last week have more or less canceled each other out.
Unfortunately, Mortgage rates can go up again today. This morning's consumer price index has kindled existing fears of future inflation.
Find and lock a low rate (May 12, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (May 12, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yesterday's climb didn't surprise regular readers. I warned that they might recover from the fall on Friday.
Was Tuesday's rate hike the start of the steady hikes I've been forecasting for weeks? It may be. But we have to wait to see. I wouldn't take any chances for myself.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury increased from 1.63% to 1.68% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower again when opened. (Good for mortgage interest.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices jumped from $ 64.37 a barrel to $ 66.13. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,822 an ounce to $ 1,834. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – held constant at 45 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise higher today. And be aware that intraday volatility (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature these days.
Find and lock a low rate (May 12, 2021)
Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
So what happened yesterday? The rise in mortgage rates was the result of a combination of the two drivers I highlighted this morning – and before. Fear of future inflation and bottlenecks in the supply chain.
CNN Business Nightcap's e-newsletter summed it up well:
Investors pulled out of stocks Tuesday, terrified about what they are seeing in the real world: disruptions in the supply chain are exacerbating the shortage of gas, wood, steel and what you call computer chips. That means prices are rising and nothing currently scares investors more than the I-word (* whispers * inflation). Fun Game: Drop the I word in the middle of a clam casserole in the Hamptons on Memorial Day and watch the Finance Brothers weep into their white claws.
– CNN Business Nightcap, May 11, 2021
This morning's consumer price index was + 0.8% in April. This corresponds to an annual increase of 4.2%, the highest since mid-2008. Investors who were already frightened by fears of inflation reacted as badly as expected.
With luck, problems in the supply chain will be resolved. Some of them were made worse by one-off events, such as the ship stuck in the Suez Canal in March and the hacking of the colonial pipeline last week. Others may be due to pandemic issues with overseas suppliers.
So it is not yet clear that mortgage rates will continue to rise on a sustained basis. But it's a real possibility.
For more background information, see our latest weekend edition of this report.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those spikes were largely replaced by falls in April, though those have slowed since the middle of this month. Freddie's May 6 report puts this weekly average at 2.96% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.98% in the previous week. However, notice how small these weekly movements are now.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddies updated on April 14th, Fannies updated on April 12th, and the MBA updated on April 22nd.
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. However, if any of these forecasts are to prove correct, interest rates will have to rise rapidly at some point in the remaining seven weeks of the current quarter (Q2).
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (May 12, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.