Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell by the smallest measurable amount yesterday. It was a repeat of last Friday when an increase was likely early in the day but turned into a decrease. And it's been two weeks since we last saw an actual spike.
The consumer price index for March this morning was just a touch hotter than most economists expected. However, that was not enough to have a significant impact on the markets, at least early in the day. And Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or move on either side of the neutral line.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (April 14, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
For the reasons listed below under “Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?”? My personal lock recommendations must remain.
Yes, today has been two weeks since we last saw these rates. And you might well choose to pause the lockdown until mortgage rates rise again. But be prepared for sharp moves once the current slack ends.
And for the time being, my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury decreased from 1.68% to 1.66% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices dropped from $ 60.32 per barrel to $ 60.21. ((Neutral for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices nudged from $ 1,738 per ounce to $ 1,748. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – fell to 52 out of 55 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged today or change little. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
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Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?"
Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
The March consumer price index release this morning was a big event. And to think, about a year ago, I told readers that inflation hasn't been a seriously hot topic in decades.
Well it is now. Some economists fear that the impending economic boom will lead to noticeably higher inflation. This is a real concern for investors in safe, long-term, low-yielding assets such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
You can see why. Who wants to get stuck with a 3.3% return on MBS (minus maintenance costs) for the next 30 years when they get a return from a 4 if they wait a while?
If they wait, lower demand for MBS means lower prices. And that means – intuitively but inevitably – higher returns and higher mortgage rates.
Fear of future inflation could therefore lead to higher mortgage rates. However, the likely economic recovery later this year could prove to be an even bigger driver. Because booming economies almost always bring higher interest rates.
And this boom is becoming more and more likely. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told CBS's "60 Minutes" Sunday:
What we are seeing now is really an economy that appears to be at a tipping point. We feel in a place where the economy is growing much faster and jobs are being created much faster. The outlook has brightened considerably.
True, Mr Powell went on, the recovery and boom may still be derailed, perhaps by a new wave of a new variant of COVID-19. But he seemed to find that less likely than the high-growth scenario he outlined.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is published just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, according to Freddie's April 8 report, that weekly average is 3.13% (with 0.7 fees and points) compared to 3.18% the previous week. In a press release, Freddie noted, "For seven straight weeks, mortgage rates have fallen due to the recent modest decline in US Treasury bond yields."
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies were updated on March 17th and the MBA updated on March 22nd. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. The numbers are from January 10th and look clearly stale:
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
N / A
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. And as the year goes on, the spread is sure to widen.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course you should do a lot of shopping in comparison, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (April 14, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.