Mortgage and refinance charges in the present day, October 30th, and rate of interest forecast for subsequent week

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates were stable yesterday. Yes, they are high now by 2020-21 standards. But look further back and they stay ridiculously low.

I shouldn't be surprised if Mortgage rates go up next week. But that's what I thought seven days ago. And they actually fell, if just a little. If anything, next week is even more unpredictable. Read on to find out why.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 30, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years

Conventionally fixed for 15 years

Conventional 20 years old

Conventionally fixed for 10 years

30 years permanent FHA

Fixed FTA for 15 years


30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 30, 2021)

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

If I were you, I'd fix my mortgage rate. Because, in my view, the forces trying to drive those interest rates up remain powerful. And those who want to pull it deeper are relatively weak. Read on for details.

That could of course change. But it would probably take something disastrous to make a quick and profound turnaround. And that doesn't look likely right now.

In any case, my personal recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut instinct and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

What is driving current mortgage rates?

Next week's big event for mortgage rates could turn out to be the highly anticipated announcement by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday November 3rd that it will begin scaling back its quantitative easing programs. To do what

That just means some programs will be phased out, including one that has kept mortgage rates artificially low since the pandemic began.

For a few months I thought this could skyrocket mortgage rates. Because that happened the last time the Fed launched a similar program in 2013. But now I expect this announcement to get a bit damp on Wednesday.

Yes, there could be a market reaction on both sides of the Fed statement on Wednesday (2 p.m. ET) and the press conference 30 minutes later. But this time (and unlike 2013) the central bank clearly signaled its intentions in advance.

And the recent hikes in mortgage rates were likely in anticipation of the announcement. So the pain has spread and the worst may already be behind us.

Of course, there is always the possibility that the Fed will delay its announcement, perhaps until its next meeting in mid-December. But it so clearly signaled its intention to do so on November 3rd that any delay would be somewhere between malicious and perverse.

The Fed alone will not stop the rise in mortgage rates

As I said, the Fed's announcement may have a limited impact on mortgage rates. But two other forces remain powerful.

The first is inflation. It stays warm long after many expected it to cool down. And there are still no signs that this will change anytime soon.

When investors buy mortgage bonds ("mortgage-backed securities" which largely determine mortgage rates), they are buying fixed income securities. And right now, inflation is higher than that income. So a real loss is built in. You can't blame them for wanting higher returns – which means higher mortgage rates.

The second driver of higher mortgage rates is falling new infection rates for COVID-19. The low mortgage rates over the past 19 months are almost entirely – if sometimes indirectly – due to the pandemic. So you can see why a weakening coronavirus could lead to higher rates.

Note, however, that the infection rate has increased over the past few days. And some fear a new wave over the winter. If that happens, it should take some pressure off mortgage rates. But at a terrible price.

Economic reports next week

It's a big week for economic reports. And the biggest of them all is next Friday's employment report. Analysts hope it will be better than last month. But we have to wait to see. Some perceive ADP's Wednesday employment report as an editorial for the official one. So that too could cause waves.

There are also a few indices for the manufacturing and service sectors from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday and Wednesday respectively. And investors take these seriously as indicators of how the economy is developing.

But none of the other economic reports listed below are likely to cause much movement in the markets unless it includes shockingly good or bad data:

Monday – October ISM manufacturing index and September construction expenses Wednesday – Fed statement and press conference (see above). plus ADP employment report and ISM service index, both for October Thursday – productivity and unit labor cost for the third quarter. Plus weekly new applications for unemployment insurance until October 30th, Friday to October Employment report, consisting of payrolls outside of agriculture, unemployment rate and average hourly wage

Attention Wednesday and Friday.

Find and lock a cheap rate (October 30, 2021)

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

I think so again Mortgage rates could go up next week. Yes, I was wrong last week when I predicted the same thing. In my defense, however, I said, “But we will likely be due a small decrease as an adjustment soon. And it's always possible that this could happen in the next seven days. "

I'm similarly unsure how these courses will play out next week. Nevertheless, I assume that they will increase overall in the coming weeks and months.

Mortgage and refinancing rates usually move in parallel. And a gap that had grown between the two was largely closed with the recent abolition of the disadvantageous market refinancing fee.

And another recent regulatory change has likely made investment property and vacation rental mortgages more accessible and less expensive.

This is how your mortgage rate is determined

Mortgage and refinancing rates are generally determined by prices on a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that depends heavily on the economy. So mortgage rates are typically high when things are going well and low when the economy is in trouble.

Your part

But you play a huge role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can significantly affect it by:

Rummage For Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary A Lot From Lender To Lender Improve Your Credit Score – Even A Small Boost Can Make A Big Difference To Your Interest Rate And Payments Save The Biggest Down Payment You Can – Lenders Like You To Be Real In This Game Keeping Your Other Borrowings Modest – The lower your other monthly obligations, the higher the mortgage you can afford. Choose Your Mortgage Carefully – Are You Better Off With A Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo, Or Other Loan?

The time you spend getting these ducks in a row can result in you winning lower prizes.

Remember, it's not just a mortgage rate

Remember to count all of the upcoming home ownership costs when figuring out how much a mortgage you can afford. So concentrate on your "PITI". This is yours P.rincipal (pays back the amount borrowed), IInterest (the price of borrowing), (property) TAxles and (homeowners) IInsurance. Our mortgage calculator will help you with this.

Depending on your mortgage type and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily reach three digits every month.

But there are other potential costs as well. So you have to pay community contributions if you choose to live with an HOA. And wherever you live, you have to expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no landlord to call if something goes wrong!

After all, it's hard to forget about closing costs. You can see this in the specified annual percentage rate (APR). Because this effectively spreads it over the term of your loan and is thus higher than your pure mortgage interest.

But you may be able to get help with these closing costs and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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