Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. That brought them below the six month highs they were at in recent business days. But of course, these rates currently remain exceptionally low compared to pre-pandemic levels.
And maybe more good news awaits us. because Mortgage rates are likely to fall again today. But as always, that can change during the day.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I still believe that overall mortgage rates will rise rather than fall in the coming weeks.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield dropped from 1.63% to 1.56%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were mixed after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 83.41 a barrel to $ 83.59. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,795 an ounce to $ 1,798. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – fell from 74 from 100 to 69. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (10/28/2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Today and soon
The three main drivers of higher mortgage rates remain. Read the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.
Mortgage Rates and Other Markets
We use five main sources of market data (above) when trying to predict daily mortgage rates. But some are more reliable guides than others.
10-year government bond yields are a pretty good indicator. This is because they are in direct competition with mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), the type of bond that largely drives mortgage rates. So when investors buy or sell one type of these bonds, they are often doing the same transaction for the other. MBS offer a better rate of return (yield) but are considered less secure than US Treasuries.
The demand for bonds usually depends on investor confidence. When markets are confident about the economic future, they tend to invest more in stocks. That's because, while bonds are less risky, they tend to have lower returns.
But when investors worry about the economy, they often switch to bonds. Because under these circumstances they prefer security to income. You want to protect your capital from risk.
That's why we look at stock markets, gold prices, and the CNN Business Fear and Greed Index when assessing where mortgage rates are going. But the relationships between these interest rates and these metrics (plus oil prices) are much less direct than those between interest rates and ten-year government bond yields.
And reading them all is as much an art as it is a science.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become clearer since September.
Freddies Oct 21 Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), high compared to 3.05% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.