Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges in the present day, November 10, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose inches yesterday. It was the first increase in almost a week. And it has hardly left a dent in the last few falls.

Until now, Mortgage rates are likely to continue to rise today. This follows higher than expected inflation numbers in this morning's consumer price index report.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/10/2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3.149%
3,168%
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2,547%
2,574%
-0.02%

Conventional 20 years old
2,951%
2,983%
+ 0.02%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2,478%
2,532%
-0.01%

30 years permanent FHA
3.125%
3,885%
-0.02%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,507%
3.151%
-0.03%

5/1 ARM FHA
2,474%
3.14%
-0.01%

30 years of permanent VA
2,741%
2,926%
-0.31%

15 years fixed VA
2,623%
2,963%
Unchanged

5/1 ARM-VA
2,549%
2,371%
Unchanged

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

Although the declines in recent weeks slightly outweighed the increases, I remain convinced that this will remain a slip in a longer uptrend. Of course, I could be proven otherwise.

But my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield jumped from 1.44% to 1.50%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were usually lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 82.79 a barrel to $ 84.06. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices also rose from $ 1,830 an ounce to $ 1,866. (Good for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – decreased from 87 from 100 to 84. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (11/10/2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read "How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care About It Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

The index of consumer prices (CPI) and core CPI were released this morning, which is the CPI with the volatile food and energy prices removed. Obviously, these are numbers that measure inflation. And investors are almost as obsessed with inflation as they are with employment.

This morning's CPI report reported the highest inflation rate in 30 years. And that should drive mortgage rates higher today.

Stocks and bonds

Yesterday I discussed a paradox. On the one hand, investors are so confident about the economic outlook that we have seen several all-time highs in major stock indices over the past few days and weeks. On the other hand, investors are so concerned about this outlook that they are buying safe bonds that have depressed both yields and mortgage rates. Imagine that.

Also yesterday, Nobel laureate in economics, Paul Krugman, suggested a possible reason why consumer (and perhaps investor) confidence is at odds.

Confidence in the economy

In an e-newsletter for the New York Times, Krugman found that consumer confidence surveys vary widely depending on the question asked.

When asked about their own finances, most are very optimistic. But if you ask about the general economy, there are a lot less.

Why the separation? Well, Krugman suggests that part of the reasons could be in respondents' news sources. Some of these sources emphasize negative reports on the economy while others take a more balanced or positive view. And political loyalty plays a big part in how well you view the economy.

But that's not a political point. Many news sources come with political bias and spin facts to advance their agenda. And that happens regardless of who is in power.

Economic reality

Does this explain why some worry about the economy and others don't? Probably not quite. But it could be a contributing factor.

But, as Krugman notes, the real economy is doing very well:

According to the usual measures, the US economy is booming this year. Employment has risen by more than five million since January; a record number of Americans say this is a good time to find a quality job, a feeling that is reflected in the willingness of an unprecedented number of workers to quit (yes, high quitting rates are a good sign).

– Paul Krugman, NYT E-Newsletter, Nov. 9, 2021

Mortgage rates almost invariably go up when the economy is strong. So I still believe the recent falls are temporary. And that a resumption of the uptrend at these rates will come far too soon.

Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.

Recently – Updated today

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.

Freddies November 10th Report puts the weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 2.98% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.14% the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.

ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new price (November 10, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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