Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again last Friday, which was a good way to start the long weekend. But overall they are slowly drifting back down – after those sharp rises in mid-June – into the narrow range they have now been in for months.
Judging by the early moves in key markets, Mortgage rates could go down today. But, as always, events in the hours to come could undermine that prediction.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 6, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 year celebration year
Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 6, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Last week has been a relatively good week for mortgage rates. And today the downward trend is likely to continue. So you might want to keep sharing your course today.
However, the risks of doing this over a long period of time remain relatively high. Most experts expect mortgage rates to rise soon. So my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
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Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Over the past few months, I may have created the impression that I think higher mortgage rates are inevitable. But of course they are not. Yes, they are still very likely. But nothing is certain.
And today we saw evidence from Europe that the global recovery may be less certain than many believe. That doesn't necessarily mean the US recovery will stall. But our economy is closely related to the foreign one. And we could struggle to meet our high forecast growth numbers if others cannot buy our goods and services.
The Federal Statistical Office of the Federal Government published its latest figures on incoming orders in the manufacturing sector this morning. And they were down 3.7% in May. Most economists had forecast an increase of 1% or more.
What caused this disappointing number? Well, there are likely several factors including falling heavy machinery demand and lower overseas orders. And even well-known German car manufacturers have problems with their supply chains.
UK embraces coronavirus
Meanwhile, the UK Government's Health Secretary also agreed this morning that it would be "breaking new ground" if it carried out plans to fully (well, almost) normalize life from July 19th, due to the daily infection rate could be later in the year of the lifting of restrictions exceed 100,000.
The UK government is betting that its high vaccination rate will limit hospital stays and deaths. According to Our World in Data, by July 4, 68 percent of the population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
The UK of course reserves the right to reintroduce infection prevention measures. However, critics fear that lifting almost all restrictions could be more problematic than Secretary of State Javid thinks. And that includes the risk of Great Britain becoming a petri dish for new variants.
What that means for mortgage rates
All of this does not mean that the US economic recovery will not continue unabated. But investors view risks like this (and countless others) with caution. And that may explain, in part, why mortgage rates remain low.
Still, overall high growth in the US is likely in 2021. And that will almost certainly lead to higher mortgage rates soon. Unless things go terribly wrong …
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For more background information, see the weekend edition of this Saturday column, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those increases were largely replaced by declines in April, although these moderated in the second half of this month. Meanwhile, May saw declines that slightly outweighed the increases. Freddie's July 1 report puts that weekly average at 2.98% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low compared to 3.02% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on June 16th and the MBAs updated on June 18th. Freddie's forecast is dated April 14th, but it is now only updated quarterly. So the numbers look out of date.
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 6, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.