Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose again last Friday. That was disappointing after the small fall on Thursday. But no surprise given the steep climbs earlier in the week.
At first, it looked like those rates might go up again this morning. However, an early rise subsided at 10 a.m. (ET). And at that time it seemed more likely Mortgage rates could stay stable today or move only slightly. But of course, such a rapidly changing environment could change again during the day.
Find and lock a low rate (February 23, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (February 23, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
It looks like the mortgage rate surge may continue over the past week. Without additional positive news, they may not need to climb much further. However, it is currently difficult to see reasons why they should resort to significant resort soon.
So my personal tariff lock recommendations, which I changed last week, remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates compared to roughly the same time yesterday were:
The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 1.32% to 1.33%. (Bad for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower when opened. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices have lower oil prices rose from $ 60.16 a barrel to $ 60.62. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices rose to $ 1,805 $ 1,778 per ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 59 to 56 from 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors Push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks while “fearful” investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain unchanged today or change little.
Find and lock a low rate (February 23, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
I am Expect mortgage rates to stay stable today or be just inches from the neutral line. But as always, that could change during the day.
The Financial Times reported on American mortgages this morning: "The 30-year fixed-term loan returns to 3% as inflation concerns hit the real economy." And that's one of the reasons for last week's rate hikes.
Perhaps you could argue that this is the only thing because the other, more obvious ones, may be behind this new cause. But those others might have been able to explain the increases even if no one paid any attention to future inflation. You are new optimism about:
The introduction of the vaccine gives the economic recovery a quick shot in the arms. Outlook for the president's $ 1.9 trillion pandemic relief move, which Congress passed largely intact
It will likely take at least one of these upheavals or some big negative news for mortgage rates to come down in a meaningful way.
Some economists fear that the stock market boom will become unstable and that panic and a sharp correction could come our way as early as next month. And if that happened, lower mortgage rates could certainly follow. However, so far this is a minority opinion and your judgment on how likely it is will be just as valid as anyone else's.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is released just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the prices went up. And Freddie's February 18 report puts that weekly average at 2.81% compared to 2.73% the previous week and its highest level since mid-November. But even that weekly average doesn't take into account all of the increases we've seen that week.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed-rate mortgages with a term of 30 years. Fannies and MBA were updated on February 18th and 19th. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts and these are from mid-January:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And in the course of the year the spread will certainly increase.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (February 23, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.