Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. That is of course welcome. By and large, however, these rates have settled down for weeks.
First, mortgage rates are likely to fall today. This is because this morning's employment report fell far short of the optimistic forecasts made by economists.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (May 7, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Today is a day to breathe. Economists and analysts had expected this morning's employment report to create a million new jobs in April. In fact, 266,000 new jobs were created that month. And that deficit is likely to lead to a decline in mortgage rates today. So float now.
Aside from today's disappointment (for the economy; not for mortgage rates), little has changed when you look back at Freddie Mac's weekly averages for 30-year fixed rate mortgages over the past three weeks. It was 2.97% on April 21, 2.98% a week later, and 2.96% yesterday. Go on folks. There is nothing to see here.
As for me, are the risks that came with floating during this period. Yes, you've made tiny profits for keeping your nerve. But will it take time? I still expect the climbs to start soon. And if I'm right, they might be spicy. The markets often react excessively after a period of doldrums.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury fell from 1.58% to 1.54% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were higher When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices fell to $ 64.69 from $ 65.30 a barrel. ((Good for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity. Gold prices rose from $ 1,807 per ounce to $ 1,832. ((Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Rose from 49 out of 100 to 51. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that intraday volatility (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature right now.
Find and lock a low rate (May 7, 2021)
Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Does this morning's remarkably disappointing employment report change anything? Well it could be. Recently, however, investors have been ignoring a tidal wave of great economic news. True, they are unlikely to shake off today's shock. But it can have a less lasting effect than at other times.
What bothers me is the cumulative effect of markets ignoring economic data. I'm worried they'll bottle it all up. And it is possible that one day they will react sharply to a single trigger. Think of this as a seemingly calm person releasing explosively pent-up anger.
Now it is entirely possible that the markets will be a picture of calm when they finally regain their sense of direction. But it is unwise to rely on it. And that's why I've asked readers to either lock or make sure they're ready to lock when the time comes to hit the button.
Because all April profits could be lost in a matter of days when the markets are finally triggered. That is far from certain. But it's a real risk.
For more background information, see our latest weekend edition of this report.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those spikes were largely replaced by falls in April, though those have slowed since the middle of this month. Freddie's May 6 report puts this weekly average at 2.96% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.98% in the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddies updated on April 14th, Fannies updated on April 12th, and the MBA updated on April 22nd.
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.