Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday, as we predicted. It's been almost a week since we saw an increase.
And this happy run can continue today. Because first thing this morning it looked like it did Mortgage rates could stay stable today or fall modestly. However, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last major policy meeting early this afternoon. And that could change everything.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (April 8, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
If you just look at mortgage rates in April and the last day of March, you think we are in the middle of a downward trend. But all of the falls we've seen during that time don't add up to the climbs between March 28th and March 30th. And if you look back on that time last month, those rates are now significantly higher.
So it seems unlikely to me that the uptrend will reverse – or soon. However, there is no denying that this pause in ascent was unexpected (at least from me). And that investors currently seem to be acting tactically. (Read on for more.)
However, my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury decreased from 1.68% to 1.66% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly higher when opened. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices fell from $ 60.20 a barrel to $ 59.14. ((Good for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices dropped from $ 1,740 an ounce to $ 1,738. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Nudged 63 out of 64 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall slightly today or remain stable. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
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Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?"
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Should I revise my belief that mortgage rates will keep rising now that they are falling? Not yet. Lulls and short periods of time in which stocks, commodities or yields and interest rates move against a trend are characteristics of all markets.
And the main driver of the uptrend (signs of an impending economic upswing) is growing in strength every day. Just yesterday, the official JOLTS (Job Openings and Fluctuation Survey) figures reached a record high in February – despite the unusual weather this month. The index of the March Institute for Supply Management (ISM) for the service sector – also on this day – reached a new all-time high.
The kind of growth that this and other recent numbers imply almost always brings with it higher mortgage rates. But it usually also brings inflation.
And this morning's Financial Times read, "US inflation fears mount as bond turmoil continues." In the following report he quoted a bond dealer: "I stay away from traditional fixed income securities for fear of rising returns."
Over time, such fears of future inflation tend to lead to higher interest rates. But right now it seems to be lowering them. I doubt it will stay that way. And I wonder if the Federal Reserve is buying additional mortgage-backed securities to keep those rates artificially low for now.
Of course, my assessment of the situation can turn out to be wrong. And even if I'm right, it is entirely possible that a catastrophic event could cause mortgage rates to fall. But how likely is that? I wouldn't bet my next mortgage rate with those odds – especially the likely meager profits that are currently on the table.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is published just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose. And Freddie's April 1st report puts that weekly average at 3.18% (with 0.7 fees and points) compared to 3.17% the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies were updated on March 17th and the MBA updated on March 22nd. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. The numbers are from January 10th and look clearly stale:
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
N / A
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. And as the year goes on, the spread will certainly widen.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course you should do a lot of shopping in comparison, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.