Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell inches yesterday. Phew! This decline came after five consecutive business days without a fall. But even so, these prices never got lost outside of the narrow range they have been hovering in for months. And they stay exceptionally low.
Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates could stay stable today or be just a few inches on either side of the neutral line. But that could change during the day.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 9, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
Conventional 5-year ARM
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 9, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
There still seems to be little sign of what could drive mortgage rates high for at least a few weeks. There is a slight danger point on September 22nd. And another month comes next if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling. However, few are seriously concerned about either. Read on for more details.
So right now it looks likely that these rates will continue to drift up and down and not go fast anywhere. At some point, however, they have to move decisively. And when this is the case, experts mostly expect an increase.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.36% to 1.33%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mixed shortly after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices dropped to $ 68.66 from $ 69.45 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices Inches higher to $ 1,797 of $ 1,796 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – down from 51 to 50 inches From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged or hardly changed today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 9, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
The Federal Reserve yesterday published its Beige Book, which is an eight-times-a-year overview of the country's economic outlook. It started off somewhat alarmingly: "In early July through August economic growth slowed slightly to a moderate pace." But it went on to explain, "The slowdown in economic activity was largely due to a decline in restaurants, travel and tourism …"
And who is that surprising given the spread of the COVID-19 delta variant in many parts of the country? Meanwhile, growth continues – albeit at a more moderate pace.
Still, the book could put downward pressure on stock indices and mortgage rates today. However, it is battling this morning's better-than-expected weekly unemployment rate that may try to push it up.
Yesterday I explained all about tapering and how it could drive mortgage rates up. When that begins is up to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy body, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee. And no one is sure when they will take a step to trigger rejuvenation.
But we'll likely find out at one of the three post-meeting press conferences scheduled for this year:
This September date is probably the least likely to be an announcement. But these things are unpredictable. And as we examined yesterday, some powerful voices within the Fed would like a turnaround in monetary policy as early as possible. Meanwhile, the Fed's Australian and European equivalents both announced the start of their reduction initiatives this week.
Yesterday Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a sharp warning to Congress. She said the government would run out of money to pay her bills and meet her debts as early as next month.
The only way to avoid this would be for Congress to raise the debt ceiling to allow the Treasury Department to borrow more.
The debt ceiling is an old political soccer ball that gets kicked around on a regular basis. But it's nonsense. An increase in the upper limit does not allow any further expenditure. It only allows spending that Congress has already approved. And the legislature has so far always given in after kicking back and forth for a long time.
But even this brinkmanship harbors dangers. Yesterday, CNN Business’s Nightcap e-newsletter recalled events in 2011 when Congress last threatened to hold the debt ceiling as a ransom:
With an economy still hit by the 2008 financial crisis, lawmakers got into a protracted debate over the debt ceiling that was pushing the country to the brink of default. Even if they ultimately averted disaster, looming insolvency dropped stocks and resulted in a downgrade in the United States' credit rating.
And CNN's e-newsletter quoted an expert. "It would be a financial Armageddon," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "It is utter madness to even think about not paying our debts on time."
Chances are, with some fun, Congress will raise the debt ceiling. Let's just hope the politicians take their ball home before they do too much damage.
What does this have to do with mortgage rates? Well, even the possibility of a US Treasury default would be enough to drive up US Treasury bond yields significantly. And mortgage rates tend to overshadow 10-year US Treasury bond yields.
It is far too early to panic about the reduction or debt ceiling. But now you know the only two points on my radar that are likely to have a big impact on mortgage rates. And both would send them higher.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column. And the longer-term forecast of my colleague Tim Lucas, Mortgage Rate Forecast and Trends: Will rates fall in September 2021?
Recently – Updated today
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's September 9 report puts this weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points). high from 2.87% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 9, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.