Mortgage and refinance charges immediately, November sixth, and rate of interest forecast for subsequent week

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday and ended the week well below their starting value. Most loans are still above 3%. But they are going in the right direction.

I have been forecasting higher rates in the past few weeks and have proven myself extensively wrong. I still think the recent declines were a slip in a much longer uptrend. But it was quite a slip up. And I can't be sure how long it'll be.

Still, I'll stick my neck out and say I'm thinking Mortgage rates could go up next week, supported in part by the stimulus package and some great employment data.

Find and lock a cheap rate (November 6, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years

Conventionally fixed for 15 years

Conventional 20 years old

Conventionally fixed for 10 years

30 years permanent FHA

Fixed FTA for 15 years


30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a cheap rate (November 6, 2021)

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

You might want to wait until next week to see if mortgage rates go down before you lock up. But you should be ready to hit the button anytime.

The forces that are designed to push these rates up are powerful. And I am still convinced that mortgages will soon become more expensive again.

But I have to admit that the markets are not reacting to recent events as I expected. And if that takes much longer, I might have to revise my advice.

But for now, my personal recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut instinct and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

What is driving current mortgage rates?

It came as no great surprise that Wednesday's big announcement by the Federal Reserve did not cause mortgage rates to rise. This time last week I wrote, "I expect this Wednesday announcement to get a little damp … the pain has spread and the worst may already be behind us."

In fact, those prices rose modestly that day. What I didn't expect was that they would fall on Thursday and Friday.

And that was twice that for Friday. Because the job report that day was much better than expected. Ordinarily, investors would embrace this news by raising mortgage rates before jumping on their yachts for the weekend and popping champagne corks.

So what's going on right now?

Mortgage News Daily has a theory to explain what is going on. It had occurred to me, but I thought it was dubious. But maybe I was wrong.

And it all has to do with the Bank of England (BoE), the UK's central bank, and its equivalent, our Fed. It met on Thursday, the day after the Fed meeting. And she, too, had clearly signaled her intentions in advance.

In her case, however, she had announced that she would raise her interest rates. But it did not work. On that day they remained unchanged at 0.1%. The pound (the currency of Great Britain) fell, as did UK government bond yields (“applies”).

These gilts correspond to our US Treasuries. And there is usually a close correlation between 10-year US Treasury bond yields and US mortgage rates.

So was that it? Did mortgage rates fall on Thursday and Friday due to BoE inaction? Maybe. Central banks certainly influence each other. And global investors can shop around for their bond purchases. So it's easy to understand that national markets are getting infected to some extent.

But so much? Who knows? I don't have anything better.

Other upward pressure

In the meantime, all of the forces I usually mention continue to try to drive up mortgage rates:

Inflation – We'll get the latest figures next week. But there is little evidence of a slowdown in inflation. And that pretty much always brings higher rates. Falling COVID-19 Infection Rates – Daily infection rates fell from 285,058 on September 13 to 71,617 yesterday. And a thriving economy means higher mortgage rates. The Fed – After 19 months of keeping mortgage rates artificially low, the Fed finally announced on Wednesday that it would cut its support. And it is reducing its $ 40 billion monthly mortgage bond purchases by $ 5 billion a month. Until it hits zero in mid-2022. This will likely hurt in time

And now there is a fourth driver for higher rates. Until yesterday, low employment was the trump card for economic recovery. But Friday's report was excellent. So that recovery looks safer.

And of course, President Joe Biden's $ 1 trillion infrastructure plan was finally passed by Congress yesterday. And that will most likely drive the recovery faster and further.

Economic reports next week

This week's economic reports mainly focused on employment. And the next week is mostly about inflation.

As mentioned earlier, one of the main reasons for higher mortgage rates is inflation. And if next week's data shows any noticeable slowdown, those rates could fall. However, if those numbers show the same or higher inflation, expect more expensive mortgages.

None of the other economic reports listed below are likely to cause much movement in the markets unless they include shockingly good or bad data:

Monday – October Producer price index for final demand (future inflation) Wednesday – October Consumer price index (CPI) plus Core CPIThat’s the CPI with volatile food and energy prices being stripped out. Plus weekly new unemployment claims through November 6th Thursday – Markets closed for Veterans Day holiday Friday – Vacancies in September and Consumer Sentiment in November

Wednesday is the big day of next week.

Find and lock a cheap rate (November 6, 2021)

Mortgage rates forecast for next week

I think so again Mortgage rates could go up next week. If they don't, it will be three weeks in a row if I make this prediction wrong.

But I find it hard to believe that the markets will not respond to the passing of the $ 1 trillion infrastructure plan and better employment news, when the latter would be a delayed response.

Of course, I can't be sure of that. But I'm pretty sure that at some point mortgage rates will continue their upward trend.

Mortgage and refinancing rates usually move in parallel. And a gap that had grown between the two was largely closed with the recent abolition of the disadvantageous market refinancing fee.

And another recent regulatory change has likely made investment property and vacation rental mortgages more accessible and less expensive.

This is how your mortgage rate is determined

Mortgage and refinance rates are generally determined by prices on a secondary market (similar to the stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And that depends heavily on the economy. So mortgage rates are typically high when things are going well and low when the economy is in trouble.

Your part

But you play a huge role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can significantly affect it by:

Rummage For Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary A Lot From Lender To Lender Improve Your Credit Score – Even A Small Boost Can Make A Big Difference To Your Rate And Payments The Biggest Down Payment You Can Save The Biggest Down Payment You Can – Lenders Like You To Get Real Skin In This One Keeping Your Other Borrowings Modest – The lower your other monthly obligations, the higher the mortgage you can afford. Choose Your Mortgage Carefully – Are You Better Off With A Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo, Or Other Loan?

The time you spend getting these ducks in a row can result in you winning lower prizes.

Remember, it's not just a mortgage rate

Remember to count all of the upcoming home ownership costs when figuring out how much a mortgage you can afford. So concentrate on your "PITI". This is yours P.rincipal (pays back the amount borrowed), IInterest (the price of borrowing), (property) TAxles and (homeowners) IInsurance. Our mortgage calculator will help you with this.

Depending on your mortgage type and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily reach three digits every month.

But there are other potential costs as well. So you have to pay community contributions if you choose to live with an HOA. And wherever you live, you have to expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no landlord to call if something goes wrong!

After all, it's hard to forget about closing costs. You can see this in the specified annual percentage rate (APR). Because this effectively spreads it over the term of your loan and is thus higher than your pure mortgage interest.

But you may be able to get help with these closing costs and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Read:

Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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