Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose slightly again yesterday. That's three climbs on consecutive working days. And they're starting to dent in the falls of last week. But these rates are still much lower than they were in the second half of June.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will tell the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee today that changes in monetary policy are "a long way off," according to a pre-copy of his remarks. The message means Mortgage rates are likely to fall today.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 15, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 year celebration year
Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 15, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I'm not (yet) panicking about the recent mortgage rate hikes. Of course, it is always possible for them to continue to rise and turn into an upward trend. But I suspect they'll be moderating soon. So far they look like a normal rebound from a recent low. And this morning's news from the Fed is already sparking a likely drop in mortgage rates.
But there is still a risk of floating further. Because a sharp increase within weeks is quite possible. And mortgage rates are generally expected to rise slightly, even if this sharp rise does not materialize.
So my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.35% to 1.37%. But they closed at 1.42% yesterday so they are falling now. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices increased to $ 75.12 from $ 74.36 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices increased from $ 1 to $ 1,826,812 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Inches to 41 of 39 of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 15, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday's consumer price index, which was hotter than expected, saw these prices rise the fastest in 13 years. And the Financial Times this morning had a headline: "Taper Tensions: (Federal Reserve Chair) Jay Powell Under Pressure as US Inflation Rises." Below it reads, "Rising prices will encourage the restrictive Fed to withdraw monetary stimulus." urges. "
Mr. Powell will testify on Capitol Hill starting at noon (ET) today. And this morning the Fed gave a preview of what it will say. He thinks that any taper is still "far away". And mortgage rates fell on this news. But some might think that he needs to be pretty specific. Read on for why he may soon have no choice but to rejuvenate.
Meanwhile, this morning's producer price index, showing inflation still in the pipeline, was hotter than expected. The average forecast of the analysts had expected an increase of 0.6% in June. But the index actually rose 1%.
All of this is important to mortgage rates as it relates to the possibility that the Fed will slow ("decrease") its purchases of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, which I examined yesterday. The last time this was in 2013, mortgage rates skyrocketed.
How bad is the inflation?
Obviously, there is a lot of worry about inflation and the possibility of it growing and maybe staying for years. Some senior economists and economic historians remember how devastating this phenomenon was in the 1970s.
And that's why so many loud voices warn. But CNN Business' Nightcap e-newsletter last night added some perspective:
In any case, don't panic. While sustained inflation is bad, the Fed and many economists believe these rises will be temporary (although it is not always clear what they mean by "temporary"). We are now correcting the lost summer of 2020 in some ways – the year-over-year headline numbers will look (and feel) bad as you emerge from a deep recession. Take travel: airfares have increased nearly 25% in the past 12 months, while prices for hotels and motels have increased 15%. But both are still below what they were in June 2019 before the pandemic.
CNN Business Nightcap, "EVERYTHING IS EXPENSIVE," July 13, 2021
So far, the Fed has resisted pressure to rejuvenate. But if enough people believe the doomsday singers, the decision will be made for them. And various senior Fed officers (as well as the minutes of their last Political Committee meeting) suggest that it will weaken shortly, probably this year.
In 2013, however, it was the announcement of tapering, rather than the actual reduction in security purchases, that sparked a spike in mortgage rates. And we could see such an announcement within weeks.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
For more background information, see the weekend edition of this Saturday column, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, in April and since then, those increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit marginally. Freddie's report from July 8th puts this weekly average at 2.9% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.98% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on June 16th and the MBAs updated on June 18th. Freddie's forecast is dated April 14, but is now only updated quarterly. So the numbers look out of date.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.