Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates were flat yesterday as some key markets took a breather.
And that breather seems to continue this morning. Then Mortgage rates are likely to remain inches lower or stable today. But all of that could change during the day.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Mortgage rates are currently unpredictable. And that's likely to stay that way until we get a much clearer picture of the economic threat posed by the Omicron variant of COVID-19.
So, be sure to read my mortgage lockout recommendations (below) in the back of your mind. It makes perfect sense to continue swaying your course if you are willing to bet that the Omicron threat will be anywhere from zero to mild. But if your risk tolerance is less bullish, you should probably lock up.
But my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield shut down from 1.50% to 1.49%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices decreased from $ 71.79 a barrel to $ 71.66. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role in the development of inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices decreased from $ 1,781 an ounce to $ 1,779. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Hardly moved: up to 38 out of 37 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won't hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be inches lower. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (10.12.2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care Only top borrowers (with great credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – though they all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and keep their price lists the same for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The major US stock market indices closed at record highs yesterday. As a result, many investors discourage potential negative consequences from Omicron.
Some of this could be due to a statement from Pfizer-BioNTech, also released yesterday, that reported that those who received three shots of the vaccine are likely to be well protected against the new variant. This was based on only a few laboratory tests but was very encouraging. Those without a booster shot are likely to do less well.
So far, only 50 million Americans have gotten their boosters. So the race is on to get those third shots in as many arms as possible before Omicron can really gain a foothold in this country. Until yesterday it was present in 20 US states, but in small numbers.
What that means for mortgage rates
As long as investors have reason to be optimistic about Omicron, mortgage rates are likely to rise slowly.
That's because interest rates usually go up when the economy is strong, which it is now. Well most of the time.
Additional upward pressure comes from fears of persistent inflation. And the Federal Reserve, which is currently withdrawing support for artificially low mortgage rates.
If Omicron or another variant suddenly becomes a serious problem, that could of course change. The economic recovery could crumble, inflation could collapse and the Fed could reverse course.
If so, mortgage rates would likely drop sharply and hit new lows. But that doesn't happen now. As Freddie Mac's Chief Economist stated this morning:
“In the future, the course of the rates will be directly influenced by further information about the Omicron variant, as soon as it becomes known, and the overall course of the pandemic. In the meantime, the rates remain low and stable … "
Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.
Recently – updated today
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stood at 2.65%.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies 9 Dec Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.10% (with 0.7 fees and points), easy Low compared to 3.11% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to mortgages and refinancing with the most vanilla flavor.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should make extensive comparisons. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Show me today's prices (December 10, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an advertisement for the products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the policies or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parents or affiliates.