Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates just got a few inches higher yesterday. So the steep rise that I warned about did not occur. However, it remains a risk.
Indeed, this morning was the first to hint at movement in key markets Mortgage rates could go up slightly again today.
Find and lock a low rate (May 11, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (May 11, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
We have yet to see the steady rise in mortgage rates that I expected. But I'm still pretty sure they're on their way. Read on for my reasons.
The noticeable decline last Friday means that yesterday morning these rates were at their lowest level in several weeks and are almost unchanged today. So I would lock now.
But of course you can reject my analysis. If you think more falls are likely, you can keep floating.
However, my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach fifteen DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I am not saying that I am completely forward-looking. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury increased from 1.57% to 1.63% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were noticeably lower when opened. (Good for mortgage interest.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lowerOil prices fell to $ 64.37 from $ 64.96 a barrel. ((Good for mortgage rates *.Energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and are also indicative of future economic activity. Gold prices decreased from $ 1,844 an ounce to $ 1,822. ((Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 58 to 45 from 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. However, our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to be higher today. And be aware that intraday volatility (when prices change direction during the day) is a common feature these days.
Find and lock a low rate (May 11, 2021)
Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?
Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday we examined how fears of future inflation could drive mortgage rates higher. But they can go up even if those fears remain subdued. This is because mortgage rates almost always rise when the economy warms. And ours looks hot this year.
Comerica Bank also published its US economic outlook for May yesterday. And it started:
The parade of positive US economic data last month was astounding. Several series hit either all
Time highs or multi-decade highs.
This publication examined the risks to recovery. Most notable, however, was future inflation.
Yes, the other areas discussed (mainly supply chain bottlenecks) could slow the current recovery. However, Comerica emphasized, “Demand is so strong in so many industries that supply chains are trying to keep up.
That's a much better problem than too little demand. "
Most serious threat
Of course, there are other risks that could still bring recovery to a complete standstill. Most obvious is the possibility of a SARS-CoV-2 variant (the virus that causes COVID-19), which is better at resisting vaccines. And threateningly, Nature Magazine reported today on the situation in India, stating:
There is growing evidence that a variant first discovered in India may be more transmissible and somewhat better at evading immunity than existing variants. Animal models also suggest that it can potentially cause more serious illness. The researchers want to know whether these and other variants are driving the second wave and what kind of danger they pose worldwide.
– Nature, "Coronavirus variants are spreading in India – what scientists know so far", May 11, 2021
Of course, nobody should shake off these threats. But for now, a full recovery and boom is the most likely scenario for the US for the remainder of this year. And as long as that is the case, rising mortgage rates are very likely – at least for me.
For more background information, see our latest weekend edition of this report.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those spikes were largely replaced by falls in April, though those have slowed since the middle of this month. Freddie's May 6 report puts this weekly average at 2.96% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.98% in the previous week. However, notice how small these weekly movements are now.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddies updated on April 14th, Fannies updated on April 12th, and the MBA updated on April 22nd.
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. However, if any of these forecasts are to prove correct, interest rates will have to rise rapidly at some point in the remaining seven weeks of the current quarter (Q2).
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (May 11, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.