Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose noticeably yesterday. They have not fallen since January 4th and are well above the all-time low. But they are still in the ultra-low range.
I expect Mortgage rates should remain stable today or be just a few centimeters away from the neutral line. A slightly larger decrease is certainly not an option. This is based on the fact that the markets are largely flat first. Of course things can change.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 17, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 17, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I hate not being able to offer strong advice on when to lock out. However, the competing forces are currently working on mortgage rates: one is trying to drive it down and the other is trying to drive it up. And nobody knows who will win. Read on for the details.
In order to Mortgage rates could go either way in the coming days, weeks, and months. But for now, my personal recommendations on tariff lock that are just my guesses are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysHOVER when you approach 45 DaysHOVER when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.11% 1.17%. (Good for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices mostly hardly moved When opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite is true when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose from $ 52.73 a barrel to $ 52.75. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices nudged higher to $ 1,854 from $ 1,845 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – unchanged at 70 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this caveat, So far, mortgage rates should have a quiet day today.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jan 17, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
I assume that mortgage rates will hardly move today. And a modest decrease is more likely than an increase.
I have already mentioned two competing forces that act in conflict with each other when it comes to mortgage rates.
1. More national debt = higher mortgage rates
The first is the expectation of a higher national debt. Traditionally, mortgage rates have often been tied to the yield on 10-year US Treasuries (“Treasury Bonds”). And the yield on those government bonds will almost certainly increase significantly as in-depth administration finances the promised "trillions" of stimulus spending.
So this is the force trying to raise the mortgage rate. And so far it has won. Mortgage rates have risen since the Georgian Senate's announcement of the outflows that paved the way for this stimulus spending.
2. Economic consequences of a pandemic = lower mortgage rates
Then there is the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the New York Times, new cases increased 37% and deaths increased 49% in the 14 days ended yesterday. And the inevitable lockdowns and other restrictions in response are causing serious harm to the economy.
History shows that interest rates tend to be low in harsh economic conditions and rise when the economy is doing well. So the economic damage caused by the pandemic is trying to drive interest rates down.
No clear winner in sight
Unfortunately, it is far too early to say which of these competing forces will come out on top. In the last week the expectation of a higher national debt prevailed. And that could take months.
However, it's just as likely that investors will focus on the hurt economy again. Or that the forces of conflict cancel each other out. Nobody knows. As soon as we can state the likely outcome, we will let you know.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent record of this species was on January 7th. However, this was already overtaken by the events before it was published. And the prices are now significantly higher.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published December 15th) and the MBA (December 21st) are updated monthly. But Freddies are now released quarterly. And the newest one was released on October 14th. So this looks downright stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, these predictions were made before the Democratic Party swept both the Houses of Congress and the White House clean. And before the pandemic got even more virulent. Therefore, they can change more than usual this month. And with so many things currently unknown, they can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (January 17, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.