Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates were flat yesterday, dodging another spike that likely looked earlier in the day. These rates may feel high right now compared to some seen last year. But believe me, they remain incredibly low by almost any other measure.
Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates could go up today. But as we saw yesterday, such predictions are less reliable than usual during the current turmoil in the markets.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 7, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 7, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
There is finally hope that Congress will get the debt crisis on its way by December. And that could offer another breather through significantly higher mortgage rates. However, if tomorrow's employment report turns out as good as many expect, this pause can be very brief indeed.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.52% to 1.56%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 76.61 from $ 77.65 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices declined from $ 1,757 $ 1,759 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – increased from 27 to 35 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 7, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Congress has brought the debt ceiling close to the brink. But last night, "Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (DN.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Were getting closer to a pact that would raise the borrowing limit until an unspecified date in December," said it to the Washington Post (Paywall).
So we have to hope that the deal comes off today, even though it only gives 14 weeks at best, and possibly 10 weeks.
Work report and tomorrow's mortgage rates
However, the other big problem this market is facing could become even more acute tomorrow, putting more pressure on these rates. So what will happen tomorrow?
Well, then the monthly, official employment situation report should be published for September. And many expect this to bring fair or good news. Why?
Since yesterday's ADP private sector employment report was pretty good, as did this morning's weekly report on new unemployment insurance claims. That raises hopes for a good official employment report tomorrow.
But a good one of these is unlikely to be helpful for mortgage rates. Because a weak one was the Federal Reserve's last great hope to hold back its plans to end its powerful 18-month low mortgage rate support from November 3rd. And mortgage rates could well continue to rise tomorrow if the Fed moves on, that date moves from likely to very likely.
Of course, that is not certain. The markets are particularly volatile at the moment. And it is entirely possible that they will react counter-intuitively to tomorrow's report. Or that the report itself is disappointing.
In fact, nothing is certain about mortgage rates. But it seems likely to me that they will continue to rise in the coming weeks and months.
For more details on the Fed's actions and other influences on mortgage rates, see the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.
Recently – Updated today
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies Oct 7 Report puts the weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 2.99% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.01% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon, or pretty soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (October 7, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.