Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges at this time, November 5, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates fell a significant amount yesterday, which contradicts my prediction. Once again, the markets started the day on a signal and then changed their minds as the hours progressed. Please remember how many times this phenomenon has occurred recently as you read my Daily Predictions.

Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates could fall again today. But that's surprising given the excellent job report published earlier. And the markets could turn later.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (November 5th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
Change

Conventional 30 years
3,199%
3.215%
-0.04%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
2.58%
2,608%
-0.02%

Conventional 20 years old
2,991%
3,025%
Unchanged

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
2.54%
2,598%
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
3,189%
3.95%
-0.02%

Fixed FTA for 15 years
2,551%
3,195%
-0.01%

5/1 ARM FHA
2,509%
3,154%
-0.03%

30 years of permanent VA
3,052%
3,245%
-0.01%

15 years fixed VA
2,741%
3,082%
Unchanged

5/1 ARM-VA
2,553%
2,372%
-0.01%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

I am pleased to hand this section over today to Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater, who said in a statement yesterday:

While mortgage rates fell after several weeks of rising, we expect future upward trends on stronger economic data and the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures.

– Freddie Mac statement, November 4, 2021

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days

> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

the 10 year Treasury note yield dropped from 1.56% to 1.49%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices down from $ 82.87 a barrel to $ 79.62. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices increased from $ 1,796 an ounce to $ 1,800. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – increased from 83 from 100 to 85. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest plan. Start here (November 5th, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read "How Mortgage Rates Are Determined And Why You Should Care About It Only top-notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the bulk of daily price movements – although they all follow the broader trend over time. When daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

Mortgage rates have been falling in the past few weeks. According to the Mortgage News Daily archives, 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose from a six-month high on October 25 to a one-month low yesterday.

And yet I urged readers to lock their prices asap during this time. Where?

Well, I really believe the recent declines are just a break in a strong and sustained uptrend. And I have three main reasons that support this belief:

The Federal Reserve has confirmed that starting this month it will begin reducing its support for artificially low mortgage rates. Inflation is still hovering between warm and hot. And that means that mortgage bond investors' fixed income is actually real losses. The returns on these bonds largely determine mortgage rates, and they must rise to continue attracting investment. The economic recovery can only be helped by the decreasing number of new COVID-19 infections in America every day. The numbers are now starting to stabilize. But they fell from 285,058 on September 13 to 84,688 yesterday, according to The New York Times (Paywall). An improving economy almost always brings higher mortgage rates

Of course, there are other forces (particularly supply chain problems and persistently low employment) trying to pull mortgage rates down. But in my opinion, the three that are driving them up are likely to be stronger in the weeks and months to come.

Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of these daily reports from last Saturday.

Recently

The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.

Freddies November 4th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low compared to 3.14% the previous week.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and Freddies were published on October 15th and the MBAs on October 18th.

ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%

However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.

All of these forecasts expect at least slightly higher mortgage rates in the near future.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new price (November 5, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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