Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Depending on your lender, yesterday the average mortgage rate went up after three days without any increase. Read on to find out what's happening right now.
Judging by early markets, we could look forward to another fairly quiet day. And Mortgage rates could stay the same today or change little. With investors this nervous, however, more noticeable movement remains possible.
Find and lock a low rate (March 4, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional set for 30 years
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set for 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (March 4, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus is affecting your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yesterday's rise in mortgage rates was neither here nor there. Depending on your lender, you might not have seen one at all.
However, if the reasons for this surge (detailed below) resonate with investors, this could be the first of many. Of course, nothing is certain and it could pass.
But my personal recommendations for tariff blocking are:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
The Return on 10 year treasury dropped to 1.47% of 1.48%. ((Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed again When opening. ((Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices have lower oil prices rose from $ 60.78 a barrel to $ 62.25. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.Gold prices rose from $ 1,710 an ounce to $ 1,712. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Decreased from 54 to 52 from 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days may overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they need to be exceptionally strong (which means rates are likely to go up) or weak (which means they could go down) to be a reliable indicator.
But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or move only marginally. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are common these days.
Find and lock a low rate (March 4, 2021)
Important information about today's mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read & # 39;For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. Here's why"If you want to understand that aspect of what is happening
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Reading & # 39;How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?"
Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday's rise in mortgage rates was largely attributed to the frightening of investors by the prospect of inflation.
Those who hold fixed income assets – such as US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities – fear inflation. Because they only get low returns while interest rates rise in the future.
Currently, many are concerned about a rapid post-pandemic economic recovery coupled with massive government loans for COVID-19 relief. They believe that these two together could overheat the economy, which is likely to lead to higher inflation rates.
This fear was the main driver behind the rise in mortgage rates in February. And if it continues to gain momentum with investors, it could easily lead to more upward movement.
How likely is that? Your guess is as good as mine. But I would exercise caution. Overnight, IG's Kyle Rodda summed things up:
After stabilizing since the beginning of the week, we seem to be watching bond yields rise again as US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to 1.48% in Wednesday's US session.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is published just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, new weekly all-time lows were hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7, 2021 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.
But then the prices went up. Freddie's March 4th report puts that weekly average at 3.02% compared to 2.97% the previous week.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies and MBA were updated on February 18th and 19th. But Freddie is now publishing quarterly forecasts and his numbers are from mid-January:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And as the year goes on, the spread is sure to widen.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the withdrawal refinance, investment property mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (March 4, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.