Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose yesterday. While we've seen some declines lately, those rates are significantly higher than they were in mid-September. And overall, they had a bad time in those three weeks or so. Yet they remain exceptionally low by most standards.
Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates can go up again today on better than expected job numbers. But the markets remain volatile and nothing is certain.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 6, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
When to lock your mortgage rate is entirely up to you. But if I were you, I'd block mine.
Because I expect these rates to continue to rise in the coming weeks and months. Could i be wrong? Naturally. But the weight of the evidence and the momentum seem on my side.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield Inches to 1.52% from 1.51%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 77.65 from $ 78.64 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices climbed from $ 1,759 $ 1,755 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – down from 28 to 27 inches From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (October 6, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Little has changed since yesterday. And investors still await Friday's employment report as they watch in horror as the clock ticks to the debt crisis.
There may be movement today as the ADP Employment Report was released this morning. That only measures private sector jobs and is less comprehensive than Friday's official report. But sometimes investors react to the ADP publication as a possible predictor of the much more important later one. If you do this today, you will be answering better than expected numbers.
Job numbers and mortgage rates from Friday
As stated yesterday, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will withdraw ("cut back") its support for low mortgage rates beginning November 3rd, unless Friday job numbers are dire. A good, mediocre, or slightly bad report will likely stick to that date.
For the past 18 months, the Fed has been buying mortgage-backed securities (MBSs – a type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates) for $ 40 billion a month. This is possibly the main reason we have seen extremely low mortgage rates over this period.
And if it starts to slow those purchases – likely by November 3rd – there is a very good chance that those rates will go up. But don't expect investors to wait for the inevitable. The most recent increases were very likely due to trading based on expectation of Fed action. And if Friday's job report makes this almost inevitable, you might expect mortgage rates to rise from that day … and for a sustained period of time.
Debt limit disaster
Yesterday Fortune magazine examined the effects of if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling before October 18. At this point, the United States is likely to default on its debts:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is at risk of "widespread economic disaster" if Congress does not raise or suspend the US debt ceiling. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently stated that a scenario in which the US defaults with debt is "potentially catastrophic".
These are not exaggerated claims. If the US defaulted on its debt, not only would global markets at home tumble, but millions would see invaluable resources run dry overnight.
Very few Wall Street economists or academics doubt that not raising the debt ceiling would cause incalculable damage to the US and the global economy. Yet lawmakers in Congress continue to treat it like a political soccer ball.
In the worst case scenario, the cost of borrowing is likely to increase across the board. Existing fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) are of course not affected. But it will almost certainly boost rates sharply on new FRMs as well as existing adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that have exceeded their initial rate lock period.
For more information, see the weekend edition of this series of daily articles from last Saturday.
Locking is a matter of probability
Nobody can be absolutely sure when is a good time to lock their mortgage rate. Everyone can only weigh the likelihood of future events and act accordingly.
Right now, personally, I believe these odds are overwhelming for the rates to be set now or soon. But there are no guarantees. Because it is never impossible for a huge, unexpected catastrophe to disrupt everything and push prices down.
Only you can judge how likely such an event is. But I wouldn't hold my breath.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose moderately.
However, as of April, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small. More recently, we've had a couple of months with these courses barely moving. But unfortunately September brought some strong climbs.
Freddies 30. September Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.01% (with 0.7 fees and points), high from 2.88% the previous week. Personally, I am surprised that the increase was so modest because other sources suggest a stronger one.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on September 20th and the MBAs updated on September 22nd. But Freddies were last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his forecast looks seriously stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon or soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do. Or maybe Fannie thinks the tapering will have little effect.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.