Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell inches yesterday. We have these little ups and downs all week. And they really make little difference.
Early moves in key markets suggest this Mortgage rates could go down slightly today. But that could change over the course of the hours.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 30, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 30, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Bond markets and mortgage rates have drifted over the past week. And they can probably do that for a while longer. So you probably won't win or lose much if you keep floating. But the good news is we're seeing "some of the lowest mortgage rates ever," as Freddie Mac's chief economist wrote yesterday.
Most economists, however, expect mortgage rates to rise soon. So if you choose to keep your course unlocked, you can lock it at any time.
But many would rather lock at an exceptionally low rate now than risk sudden spikes. So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysLOCK when close in 45 DaysLOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
That 10 year Treasury note yield fell from 1.27% to 1.24%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recentlyImportant stock indices were mostly lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lowerOil prices increased to $ 73.83 from $ 72.91 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity. Gold prices increased from $ 1 to $ 1,829,827 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear and Greed Index – fell to 26 of 30 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (July 30, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
It is a quiet time for mortgage rates. Yes, we had real excitement in mid-July. But according to data from Mortgage News Daily, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates were only 3 basis points lower yesterday than they were on July 19, the last day of the sharp falls. And a basis point is only one hundredth of 1%.
Regular readers will know that I and many other mortgage rate watchers have been puzzled by the behavior of the relevant markets for several months now. The bond market that trades in mortgage-backed securities (and the returns on those securities actually determine mortgage rates) are acting more like we are in the middle of a recession rather than seeing the boom that is actually going on around us.
As MarketWatch put it yesterday, “After a brief but deep recession last year, the size of the economy is now above pre-pandemic levels.” And yes, yesterday's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2021 fell short of expectations.
But it was still rising at an annualized rate of 6.5%. And we are still well on our way to improving GDP this year faster than ever in the past few decades.
Whenever markets go perverse, they claim that they are only pricing in future events. That can now wash or not.
But you have a point before you with some risky opportunities. And most of them are related to the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestically and globally.
Yesterday the New York Times received a copy of an internal report from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). And overnight the Times reported its contents as follows:
Infections in vaccinated Americans … can be just as communicable as they are in unvaccinated people … The Delta variant is more communicable than the viruses that cause MERS, SARS, Ebola, the common cold, seasonal flu, and smallpox, and it's as contagious as chickenpox … people with what are called Breakthrough infections of the Delta variant carry as much virus in the nose and throat as unvaccinated people and can spread it just as easily, albeit less frequently.
– NYT, "C.D.C. Internal report describes Delta Variant as contagious like chickenpox ”, July 29, 2021
This is really scary. (Though the report ended with some assurances from a virus expert.) And if the markets reacted to such reports, you could understand why. But they are not. The falls a few weeks ago had no identifiable trigger. And it felt more like a panic attack.
The problem with markets operating at this level of irrationality is that they are perverted, capricious, and unpredictable. And that doesn't help if you're trying to make a rational decision about when to lock your mortgage rate.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases, albeit typically small, in April and since then. Freddie's July 29 report puts this weekly average at 2.8% (with 0.7 fees and points). high from 2.78% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (July 30, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.