Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates were up yesterday, up by a greater amount than we have seen in a long time. Of course, they are still very low in a historical context.
Markets often correct themselves after sharp moves like yesterday. And that's what I expect Mortgage rates can fall today but probably humble. However, during such volatile times, markets can change direction quickly and you certainly read yourself as nervous right now.
Find and lock a low rate (February 26, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (February 26, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Overnight, CNBC summed up what happened yesterday:
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note (whose mortgage rates are often in the shade) briefly surpassed 1.6% on Thursday, its highest level in over a year, driven by expectations of higher economic growth and higher inflation.
We have been highlighting the same two factors for a while. And they didn't go away.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates compared to roughly the same time yesterday were:
The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 1.45% to 1.48%. (Usually, bad for mortgage rates. However, yesterday's surge was reflected in yesterday's rates, and yields are falling now.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed when opened. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices have lower oil prices fell to $ 62.54 from $ 63.02 per barrel. (Good for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices fell from $ 1,785 an ounce to $ 1,756. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – fell from 69 from 100 to 59. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors Push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall a little or remain stable today.
Find and lock a low rate (February 26, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
I am Expect mortgage rates to go down or stay the same today. But as always, that could change during the day. Indeed, such intraday fluctuations have become an irritating feature of the markets. And they're especially likely at times like these when investors are so skittish.
Nothing has changed. And if mortgage rates fall today, the markets will likely correct themselves after rising too steeply yesterday. This is a common phenomenon after exceptional volatility.
So don't think that such a decline means that the pressures that have been driving these rates up recently have suddenly disappeared. It seems highly unlikely to me that these will drop to a record low anytime soon.
Indeed, further increases seem more likely for now as there is no sudden and very bad economic news.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is released just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the prices went up. And Freddie's February 25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97% compared to 2.81% the previous week and its highest level since mid-2020.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed-rate mortgages with a term of 30 years. Fannies and MBA were updated on February 18th and 19th. But Freddie is now publishing quarterly forecasts and his numbers are from mid-January:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And in the course of the year the spread will certainly increase.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (February 26, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we charge a range of rates, it will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.