Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday, but only by the smallest measurable amount. Of course, by more recent standards, these rates are high. But they remain very low due to historical.
It looks like Mortgage rates could fall again today, probably moderate. That's because investors are looking forward to a key Federal Reserve meeting next week. But as always, markets can change throughout the day.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 20 years fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed
30 year solid FHA
15 year solid FHA
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years solid VA
15 years solid VA
5/1 ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The past few days have been a relief after a period of inexorably rising mortgage rates. With any luck, we could see a moderate drop today.
But you should probably assume that these prices are currently on a plateau. And that they still have to climb further – albeit hopefully less steeply than before.
That sums up what I expect. Of course I can be wrong. But it would probably take a major event to drop them sustainably. Therefore, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today's mortgage rates
Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:
the Yield on 10-year treasury bills fell from 1.83% to 1.76%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were mostly lower. (Good for mortgage interest.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices fell from $86.71 a barrel to $84.69. (Good for mortgage interest*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices fell to $1,842 from $1,846 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — dropped from 57 out of 100 to 48. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" Investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and into stocks, while "anxious" investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest fare. Start here (01/21/2022)
Important information about today's mortgage interest rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care"Only "premium" borrowers (with great credit, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you'll see from advertised lenders. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases.
There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Surges over the last 30 days or so have finally moderated. But it still looks like rates will end higher this week than last.
And the drivers of the recent increases remain strong:
The Federal Reserve's premature phasing out of pandemic-era stimulus packages. Expect more news next Wednesday afternoon (January 26) after the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Uncomfortably high inflation Optimism in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic An ongoing, strong – albeit patchy – economic recovery
Both put upward pressure on mortgage rates. And there's little sign of any of them changing. So I'm pretty confident that these rates will move higher, albeit probably more slowly than they've been lately.
But the future is never certain. And it's always possible that an earth-shattering event will arrive that changes everything. Let's hope that remains unlikely.
For a longer look at what's driving mortgage rates, including why markets are bullish on Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rates report.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.
The last weekly record low was on Jan. 7 when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, although not consistently.
Freddies January 20th Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.56% (with 0.7 fees and points), high versus the 3.45% of the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the real estate sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on January 19 and the MBAs on December 21.
Freddie's was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we might not get another one of these until later this month. And his numbers are already looking stale.
forecasterQ4/21Q1/22Q2/22Q3/22Fannie Mae3.1%3.2%3.3%3.3%Freddie Mac3.2%3.4%3.5%3.6% MBA3.1%3.3%3.5%3.7%
Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae only slightly raised its interest rate forecasts in January. She expects interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average 3.2% in the current quarter. But on the day the numbers were released, we reported that they were already at 3.87%.
Do Fannie economists expect these rates to fall in February or March and stay lower in subsequent quarters? If so, you know something I don't know.
Of course, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
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Mortgage interest methodology
Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.