Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose yesterday. But they remain very close to their all-time lows.
Mortgage rates could rise sharply today. How sharp and how long can you guess? But we could be at a turning point. Read on for details.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 7, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional 5-year ARM
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 7, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yes, you should lock your mortgage rate today, especially if you close in January and possibly later. Because today could be the beginning of a series of sharp increases in these rates.
And the chances that they won't jump are slim right now. But they exist. Personally, I wouldn't accept this stake if I kept floating my course. However, you can rightly choose to do so.
What has changed? Well, it is becoming more and more likely that both Democratic candidates will win yesterday's Senate runoff election in Georgia. And that would flip control of the House of Lords and give their group a clean sweep of Capitol Hill and the White House. (At the time this was written, only one seat has been called; the other is too close to be called, but the Democratic candidate is leading.)
When that clean swing occurs, most expect a much greater need for sovereign debt (US Treasuries). This will be needed to fund more generous pandemic aid, health insurance aid, infrastructure projects and other spending programs.
Bond yields and mortgage rates rise
And that greater supply of treasuries is likely to cause their prices to fall and their returns to rise. However, this also affects other types of bonds, including mortgage-backed securities, the trading of which actually determines mortgage rates.
So buckle up for significantly higher mortgage rates. True, the economic damage caused by the pandemic may exert some downward force on them. But nobody knows exactly what the effects will be or how long they will last.
Perhaps I am overly pessimistic about the medium term impact of today's likely election result. And I can be completely wrong. But right now it's me Change my personal tariff lock recommendations::
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
With so much uncertainty right now, however, your instincts could easily prove to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is the current status at 9:50 a.m. (ET) this morning. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday morning, were:
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.04% from 0.94%. (Very bad for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were mixed when opened. (Neutral for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower. Oil prices rose to $ 50.03 $ 49.31 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices lowered to $ 1,936 from $ 1,949 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates. CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – up to 57 out of 55 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. Lower readings are therefore better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But so far they have been searching with this restriction likely to move significantly higher today.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 7, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refinancing are currently significantly higher after a change in regulations
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
I assume that mortgage rates will rise significantly today.
It's unlikely anything but the Senate outflows will worry investors today. The Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock has already been declared the winner of his race.
And Jon Ossoff (D) led David Perdue (R) with 16,370 votes as this was written. Analysts assume that given the political complexion of the districts where a few votes are still to be counted, Mr. Ossoff is likely to extend this lead. We should know more by noon in Georgia. And if he did win, that would turn the US Senate around.
Currently, Mr. Ossoff has a lead of 0.4%. And he would need 0.5% to avoid recounting. But even if he gets that, there can be legal challenges, and the postal service has until Friday to cast the last of up to 17,000 letter votes, including military and foreign votes.
However, investors are already pretending that democratic gains are almost certain. And mortgage rates are likely to rise today – barring some dramatic changes in racing.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent such record was set on December 24th. On New Year's Eve, Freddie reported that his weekly average was imperceptibly higher (one hundredth of 1%) than the previous week.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
Note, however, that fannies (published December 15th) and the MBA (December 21st) are updated monthly. But Freddies are now released quarterly. And the newest one was released on October 14th. So this looks downright stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
So the predictions vary considerably. You pay your money …
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should shop a lot in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (January 7, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.