Mortgage

Mortgage and refinance charges at present, February eight, 2022

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose only slightly yesterday. That was a relief after much stronger increases last Thursday and Friday. Yes, we're looking at the highest rates in almost 30 months. But those 30 months saw the lowest rates in history. And all we are seeing now is a return to normal.

That's what the markets signaled first this morning Mortgage rates could rise again today. But any increase should be moderate. And you have to be aware that current volatility makes these markets even less predictable than usual.

Find your lowest fare. Start here (02/08/2022)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program
mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*
change

Conventional 30 years fixed
3,972%
3,994%
Unchanged

Conventional 15 year fixed
3.118%
3.148%
+0.02%

Conventional 20 years fixed
3,694%
3,728%
-0.03%

Conventional 10 year fixed
3.221%
3,284%
+0.02%

30 year solid FHA
4.04%
4,847%
+0.02%

15 year solid FHA
3,244%
3,851%
-0.09%

30 years solid VA
3,908%
4.108%
+0.02%

15 years solid VA
3%
3,328%
+0.11%

5/1 ARM VA
4,611%
3,689%
+0.16%

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

After a fairly sharp rise in mortgage rates over the last two business days of last week, I've been speaking of a time when they're likely to plateau or drop somewhat for a short period of time. If payrolls data come in worse than expected this Thursday morning, those rates could rise again. But if they are better we could see a longer plateau or even some worthwhile falls depending on what the numbers say.

I doubt these rates will continue to rise as rapidly as they have over the past four months. But I also doubt they will fall very far unless some dramatic and unlikely event intervenes.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days

>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate

Market data affecting today's mortgage rates

Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was:

the Yield on 10-year treasury bills rose from 1.93% to 1.97%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were mixed. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices fell from $91.32 a barrel to $89.67. (Good for mortgage interest*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices rose to $1,823 from $1,815 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – went from 28 to 35 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" Investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and into stocks, while "anxious" investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Reservations on Markets and Courses

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.

Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates could rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest fare. Start here (02/08/2022)

Important information about today's mortgage interest rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care"Only "premium" borrowers (with great credit, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you'll see from advertised lenders. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as for purchases.

There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

In this week

So far there is nothing in the news today that could have a major impact on mortgage rates. And nothing has changed since I laid out this week's agenda in yesterday's edition of this interest rate report.

So click this link if you catch up. Otherwise I have nothing new to tell.

For a more detailed look at mortgage rate movements, read the latest weekend edition of this report.

Recently

For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low has been hit 16 times this year.

The most recent weekly record low was on Jan. 7, 2021, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since last September the increases have become more pronounced, although not consistent.

Freddies 3 February Report puts this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.55% (with 0.8 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.

Mortgage rate forecasts by experts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22).

The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's was published on January 19 and Freddie's and the MBA's on January 21.

forecasterQ1/22Q2/22Q3/22Q4/22Fannie Mae3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%Freddie Mac3.5%3.6%3.7%3.7% MBA3.3%3.5%3.7%4.0%

Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae only slightly raised its interest rate forecasts in January. She expects interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average 3.2% in the current quarter. But on the day the numbers were released, we reported that traditional loans were already up 3.87%.

Do Fannie economists expect these rates to come down later this month or in February or March and stay lower in subsequent quarters? If so, you know something I don't know. Neither do their peers on Freddie and the MBA teams, although I'm less optimistic than everyone else.

Of course, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts can be even more speculative than usual.

Find your cheapest fare today

You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Show me today's prices (February 8, 2022)

Mortgage interest methodology

Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of ​​what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for the products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policies or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent companies or affiliates.

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