Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell for the third day in a row yesterday. And together, they made a worthwhile difference.
It looks like it does, however Mortgage rates can go up today. We can expect volatility, at least until we better understand the Omicron COVID-19 variant. And that volatility can include the change in direction of prices during a trading session. As a result, my daily forecasts may be less reliable than they usually are.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your price can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Expect some pretty sharp spikes in mortgage rates until we know more about the Omicron variant that was present in 23 countries on five continents this morning. So we could expect a few volatile weeks.
Overall, I assume that interest rates will fall over this period. But there will likely be many days that they will go up.
My personal rate lock recommendations, which I changed yesterday, are for now:
HOVER when close in 7th DaysHOVER when close in fifteen DaysHOVER when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
> Related: 7 tips for the best refinancing rate
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here is a snapshot of the current status this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to roughly the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.43% to 1.48%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yieldsImportant stock indices were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives the prices of those stocks down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But that's an imperfect relationshipOil prices rose from $ 67.10 a barrel to $ 68.46. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity Gold prices decreased from $ 1,798 an ounce to $ 1,788. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, prices are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut ratesCNN Business Fear & Greed Index – decreased from 34 from 100 to 30. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat, Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest plan. Start here (01.12.2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How To Determine Mortgage Rates And Why You Should Care Only top-tier borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price movements – although they usually all follow the broader trend over time when daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
As I explained yesterday, the main reason for the drop in mortgage rates that day was an interview in the Financial Times given by Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel. He suggested that existing vaccines are likely to be less effective against the new Omicron variant. And he spoke of a “material waste” of this effectiveness.
However, markets may reconsider their reactions to the interview this morning. Mr. Bancel is a billion dollar businessman. And his qualifications for providing medical knowledge appear to be limited. Equally important is that his company could benefit from his comments.
Meanwhile, this morning markets may ponder what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday. He suggested that the Fed could withdraw its support for artificially low mortgage rates (and low government bond yields) sooner than currently planned.
If it isn't already, investors could soon be worried about the country's imminent debt ceiling hit. You may recall that Congress recently launched this can.
But it didn't get very far. And we can expect volatility in the markets as the cap gets closer and closer. The US Treasury Department says the crisis could come in two weeks.
If Congress does not raise the ceiling by then, the United States could default on its debt. And that's something that has never happened before. The effects are extremely frightening.
Indeed, if politicians play with the deadline, the debt ceiling could become a more powerful force on the markets than Omicron. And that could mean higher than lower mortgage rates.
Further background information can be found in the weekend edition of this daily report from Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, it hit 16 new weekly all-time lows last year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed with longer phases of ascent and descent. Unfortunately, the increases have become more pronounced since September, if not constant.
Freddies November 24th Report gives this weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.1% (with 0.7 fees and points), unchanged from the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were released on November 18th and the MBAs on November 22nd.
Freddie’s was released on October 15th. It now only updates its forecasts every quarter. So maybe we won't get another of these until January.
ForecastersQ4 / 21Q1 / 22Q2 / 22Q3 / 22Fannie Mae 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% Freddie Mac 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% MBA 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current predictions can be even more speculative than usual.
And none of these forecasters suspected that Omicron could completely change the models on which they are based.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to mortgages and refinancing with the most vanilla flavor.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should make extensive comparisons. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Real savings can be achieved when looking for your mortgage. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
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Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.