Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday, undoing Wednesday's rise. And they start this morning just a nuance lower than the same time last Friday.
Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates today could be unchanged or barely changed.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 20, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 20, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Markets remain very unpredictable. And throughout the month we saw alternating climbs and descents.
This, of course, makes both locking and floating your interest rate risky. You could miss out on some falls if you lock up too early. Or lose money if you lock up late. Personally, I would close with these odds and stakes no matter when I should close. But maybe you're braver than me
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield Inches to 1.26% from 1.25%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell to $ 62.91 from $ 63.50 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices Inches lower to $ 1,787 of 1 $,788 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Inches to 22 by 21 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or be just a few inches on either side of the neutral line. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (August 20, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Markets are still reacting to the Federal Reserve document, which fell Wednesday afternoon. Of course, that's not the only impact, as the Financial Times made clear this morning. The headline reads, "US equities have moved on concerns over Fed tightening and global growth volatility."
And the main causes of this jitter are:
The unknown future effects of the COVID-19 delta variant
Growth slowed in China
Persistent interruption in the supply chain, especially for microchips
The fact that inflation remains higher than usual
However, at least so far, these have had little impact on growth in the USA. But the economic data is more mixed than it was recently.
Are the experts wrong all the time?
If you skip a few paragraphs you will find the heading “Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasting”. Yesterday, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) updated their mortgage rate projections. And both expect lower average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages than they previously expected. However, both forecast some increases, only smaller ones.
But the two forecasts are very different. Fannie anticipates these rates averaging 2.8% in the current quarter, rising to 2.9% in the next, and staying at 3% throughout the first half of 2022. However, the MBA expects it to be 2.9% this quarter and 3.3% next. And it expects them to soar to 3.5% and then 3.7% in the first two quarters of next year. In fact, the MBA is forecasting an average of 4.2% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023.
Does this mean that these experts (and I) were wrong? Well yes and no. I still think higher rates are ahead of us. And I'm afraid the MBA's predictions might be more accurate than Fannie's. But there's no denying that we were all wrong about the timing of the increases.
You have to be very forgiving to overlook these timing errors. And you may think that they diminish (or undermine) our credibility. But I guess we'll be right when it's too late. I'll continue to dig into the latest forecasts in tomorrow's weekend edition.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.
Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 19th report builds on this weekly average 2.86% (with 0.7 fees and points), Low from 2.87% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates – Updated today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (August 20, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.