Mortgage and refinance charges at present, August 11, 2021

Today's mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday. Each of the recent climbs have been moderate or modest. But they're starting to add up. Still, these rates remain exceptionally low by almost all standards.

Until this morning it looks like it is Mortgage rates could rise again today. But the inflation data released at 8:30 a.m. ET could see it stay stable or even decrease.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Mortgage rates
Effective interest rate*

Conventional 30 years
+ 0.03%

Conventionally fixed for 15 years
+ 0.01%

Conventional 20 years old
+ 0.13%

Conventionally fixed for 10 years
+ 0.02%

30 years permanent FHA
+ 0.01%

Fixed FTA for 15 years


30 years of permanent VA

15 years fixed VA

5/1 ARM-VA

Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.

Find a cheap rate and block it (August 11, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.

Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?

We have now had climbs for five consecutive working days. And they weren't small, although none was spicy.

It is too early to say for sure that last week was a turning point that will reverse the recent downward trend in mortgage rates. But it certainly could be. And you need to recognize the increased risk of your interest rate fluctuating further.

If the rise continues, I will change my personal rate lock recommendations very soon. But at the moment they are:

LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today

Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:

That 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.32% to 1.36%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices were hardly changed around $ 67.61 from $ 67.55 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices climbed to $ 1,742 from $ 1,724 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed IndexInches higher to 41 by 40 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.

Reservations about markets and prices

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.

Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find a cheap rate and block it (August 11, 2021)

Important information about current mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

today etc

This morning's consumer price index (CPI) showed that inflation is at a 13-year high. At 5.4%, the increase over the previous year was slightly higher than forecast by analysts. And that could have pushed mortgage rates even higher.

At + 3.4% year-on-year, however, the “core CPI” (CPI with volatile energy and food prices) was somewhat lower than expected. And that seemed to be putting the brakes on higher mortgage rates.

But sometimes it takes the markets a while to digest such numbers. So don't rely on early reactions that last all day.

Ascents coming?

Last night, CNBC released a story entitled "Rising bond yields may be tied to recent comments from Federal Reserve officials" (Paywall).

For regular readers, this won't come as a surprise. I have been warning for weeks that this could happen. And in the last few days have wondered whether it has already started.

What does this have to do with mortgage rates? Well, they are mainly determined by trading in a specific type of bond called a mortgage backed security (MBS). It is true that other factors (such as the supply and demand for credit) can also affect these rates. But they are essentially tied to the returns on MBSs.

Is the secret over?

For months, bond yields have been hovering as if the economy were in a recession when in fact it was in a boom. Observers say this is because investors fear the new wave of the Delta variant could undermine the economic recovery. But there was very little correlation between worrying COVID-19 news and changes in bond yields. And investors have shrugged off much of the overwhelmingly positive economic data.

As a result, many have been confused about why the bond markets behaved the way they did. I am one of them.

There was likely always a tipping point where investors finally accepted that the rebound was real and that nothing the coronavirus could throw at it was likely to harm it significantly. And it may well be that last Friday's employment report created that turning point.

If so, mortgage rates should go up. They are usually higher when the economy is doing well.

Likely Fed decline

This CNBC headline refers to a second influence that could drive mortgage rates higher. The Federal Reserve is currently backing the recovery and buying $ 120 billion a month in assets. And a third of that is spent on MBS. That keeps mortgage rates artificially low.

Everyone accepts that the Fed can't hold out forever. But two top officials said last week that they would support an announcement made on September 22nd. And two others vaguely said they would support an early one. That is much earlier than previously expected.

If history repeats itself, such an announcement would result in significantly higher mortgage rates. At least that was the case when the Fed last made a similar announcement in 2013. Maybe things are different now. But you have to be brave to bet your next mortgage rate that it will.

And investors won't necessarily wait for that announcement. Once they are convinced that one is imminent, they will likely pretend that it has already been made. In fact, it can happen now. And it would explain that CNBC headline.

Nothing is safe

Of course, nothing is certain. In fact, if one thing has mattered for the past few years, it is uncertainty. And it is entirely possible that something disastrous could happen that will cause mortgage rates to fall again.

In fact, they can still continue their gentle falls without this disaster. We only had five working days with increasing rates. And that is far too short a time to support any predictions.

But in my opinion, the risks of low interest rates pile up. And if the recent rate hikes persist, I'll be telling you again soon to lock up soon. In the meantime, it's up to you to analyze the risks and rewards of floating yourself.

For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column.

Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?


The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.

The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.

However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's August 5th report puts this weekly average at 2.77% (with 0.6 fees and points). Low from 2.80% the previous week. But this report did not take into account the increases on that Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. And this Thursday's report is likely to show a noticeable increase.

Expert predictions for mortgage rates

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.

And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).

The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on July 19, Freddies on July 15, and the MBAs on July 21.

Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.

All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.

Find your lowest price today

Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.

But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save only a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Confirm your new price (August 11, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.

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