Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose inches yesterday. But the increase was so small that many lenders didn't change their interest rates and instead increased their closing costs by a tiny amount.
It will probably look like this until this morning Mortgage rates are going to rise today. Be aware, however, that the previously published job report can lead to waves of volatility during the day. Read on for more analysis.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 5, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years
Conventionally fixed for 15 years
Conventional 20 years old
Conventionally fixed for 10 years
30 years permanent FHA
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years of permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 5, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here to learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Read on to learn more about this morning's job report and its potential impact on mortgage rates. That being said, these rates could stay in their most recent narrow range for the coming weeks.
But at some point they will move outside of it. And when they do, they are more likely to rise than fall.
My personal rate lock recommendations remain for the time being:
LOCK when close in 7th DaysLOCK when close in fifteen DaysLOCK when close in 30th DaysHOVER when close in 45 DaysHOVER when close in 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of what was now this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
the 10 year Treasury note yield increased from 1.29% to 1.33%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields
Important stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
Oil prices edged up to $ 70.04 from $ 69.90 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a huge role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
Gold prices rose to $ 1,824 $ 1,812 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – fell from 59 to 53 From 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our records for accuracy will not reach its previous high levels until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Find and lock a cheap rate (September 5, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Reading & # 39;How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It
Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has closed a pre-existing loophole
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so forth
Anyone who has read yesterday's article will know that this morning's official employment report is widely considered to be the most influential of all monthly economic reports. And we now know what it contains.
In these economic reports, the difference between the expectations (analysts' forecasts) and the actual figures is often more important than the figures themselves. Why that?
Because investors usually act based on the analysts' forecasts prior to publication. So your expectations are priced in before it is released. And it is the difference between what is expected and the reality that creates new trades.
So here are the actual numbers from this morning (with the consensus of the analyst forecasts compiled by MarketWatch in brackets):
Payroll outside agriculture (new jobs were created in August, except on farms): +235,000 (+720,000)
Average hourly wage: + 0.6% (+ 0.3%)
Unemployment rate: 5.2% (5.2%)
These are roughly classified according to importance. But this morning's Financial Times read a headline: "Investors Watch Out For Inflation Risks In The Labor Market". The average hourly wage can therefore be more in focus than usual.
And you can see that the headline numbers for new jobs are deeply disappointing.
The impact of the report on mortgage rates
As I explained yesterday, you would normally expect mortgage rates to rise on better-than-expected numbers and fall on worse-than-expected numbers. But that doesn't necessarily have to be the case today.
Because this morning's bad report could mean that the US Federal Reserve will be on the gas longer when it comes to its monetary policy. Investors would be very happy about that. As of today, some thought the Fed could “cut” its bond purchases as early as September 22nd (gradually reduce and then stop). But now early November or mid-December seem more likely.
But there is another level of complication. Sometimes markets react reflexively to important economic reports. And then think more carefully as the day progresses. So what we see at the time of this writing (soon after 10 a.m. (ET)) may no longer apply over time.
For more background information, see Saturday's weekend edition of this column. And the longer-term forecast of my colleague Tim Lucas, Mortgage Rate Forecast and Trends: Will rates fall in September 2021?
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, these increases have been largely replaced by decreases since April, albeit typically small. Freddie's September 2nd report sets up this weekly average 2.87% (with 0.6 fees and points), unchanged from 2.87% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22 and Q2 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies and the MBAs were updated on August 19th. However, Freddies was last updated on July 15th as these numbers are now only released quarterly. And his prognosis is already looking stale.
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
Q1 / 22
Q2 / 22
However, with so many imponderables, all of the current projections could be even more speculative than usual.
All of these predictions anticipate higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And Fannie may not be involved in curbing Federal Reserve mortgage support while Freddie and the MBA do.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but if you save a quarter point on interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new plan (September 5, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We'll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.