Today's mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell again last Friday. This week's falls were welcome. But they're not even bringing rates back to last Friday's levels, let alone seriously affecting gains since January 1st.
Still, see you this morning Mortgage rates are likely to fall again today. This is mainly due to concerns over a Federal Reserve report due Wednesday and fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Effective interest rate*
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 20 years fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed
30 year solid FHA
15 year solid FHA
5/1 ARM FHA
30 years solid VA
15 years solid VA
5/1 ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your tariff may vary. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
I would lock up my mortgage rate soon if I were you. Of course, that carries some risk if those rates move down. And I wouldn't commit to a day when they're likely to fall like today.
But I think they're more likely to rise than fall in the coming weeks and months. Be aware that not all experts agree with me.
Nevertheless, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK when it closes 7 daysLOCK when it closes fifteen daysLOCK when it closes 30 daysLOCK when it closes 45 daysLOCK when it closes 60 days
>Related: 7 tips to get the best refinancing rate
Market data affecting today's mortgage rates
Here's a snapshot of the current status at around 9:50 am ET this morning. The data, compared to around the same time last Friday, was:
the Yield on 10-year treasury bills fell from 1.76% to 1.72%. (Good for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular government bond yieldsMajor Stock Indices were significantly lower. (Good for mortgage interest.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, pushing down their prices and raising yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationshipoil prices dropped to $83.91 from $84.69 a barrel. (Good for mortgage interest*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity gold prices fell to $1,834 from $1,842 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates are better when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates downCNN Business Fear & Greed Index — dropped from 48 out of 100 to 38. (Good for mortgage interest.) "Greedy" Investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and into stocks, while "anxious" investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 in gold or 40 cents in oil is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Reservations on Markets and Courses
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still talk on the phone every day. And are mostly right. But our accuracy record won't reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this caveat Mortgage rates are likely to fall today. Note, however, that "intraday swings" (when prices change direction throughout the day) are a common feature these days.
Find your lowest fare. Start here (01/25/2022)
Important information about today's mortgage interest rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it's troubled. But there are exceptions. Read 'How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care"Only "premium" borrowers (with great credit, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you'll see from advertised lenders. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – although over time they all usually follow the broader trend. When daily interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists the same as those for purchases.
There's a lot going on at the moment. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
It's hard to overstate the importance of the Federal Reserve's statement and press briefing, which is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. The financial press is full of analysis and speculation about what could happen then. So it's probably on the minds of investors as well.
Few expect surprise policy announcements and even fewer an actual rate hike. But we should know more about the Fed's plans and stance once people have had a chance to analyze and digest what has been said.
We already know that the Fed plans to raise interest rates three or four times this year, although each increase is likely to be small. And a Fed policy that has kept mortgage rates artificially low for nearly two years is already being tapered (in Fed jargon). But we might get an indication of when it might reverse that policy, which would mean actively promoting higher rates.
Taken together, these measures have led to the sharp hikes in mortgage rates we've seen in recent weeks. If the Fed's sentiment appears even more “hawkish” (more aggressive in its anti-inflationary measures) than before, as many are expecting, then these rates will likely continue to rise. If it's more "pigeon" (less aggressive), we might see them moderately or even slightly falling.
But don't necessarily expect immediate reactions. It often takes markets days to digest these changes.
There are a few other economic reports later this week that could also impact mortgage rates. The first GDP figures for the last quarter of 2021 will be published on Thursday. And on Friday comes an important inflation report. As always, what they say will determine their impact on these courses.
For some time, Russia has been building up troops on its border with Ukraine. And the chances of a full-scale invasion or major incursions seem to be increasing every day. In fact, the State Department is already withdrawing families of US diplomats from the Ukrainian capital, Kiev.
This geopolitical mess could have an impact on mortgage rates later. But how or how much will depend on its scale and impact. So this is another wait and see moment.
For a longer look at mortgage rate developments, read the weekend edition of this daily rate report.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly down. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on Jan. 7, 2021, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Since then, the picture has been mixed by extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since last September the increases have become more pronounced, although not consistent.
Freddies January 20th Report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.56% (with 0.7 fees and points), high versus the 3.45% of the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasts by experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22).
The figures in the table below refer to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie's was published on January 19 and Freddie's and the MBA's on January 21.
forecasterQ1/22Q2/22Q3/22Q4/22Fannie Mae3.2%3.3%3.3%3.4%Freddie Mac3.5%3.6%3.7%3.7% MBA3.3%3.5%3.7%4.0%
Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae only slightly raised its interest rate forecasts in January. She expects interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to average 3.2% in the current quarter. But on the day the numbers were released, we reported that traditional loans were already up 3.87%.
Do Fannie economists expect these rates to come down later this month or in February or March and stay lower in subsequent quarters? If so, you know something I don't know. Neither do their peers on Freddie and the MBA teams, although I'm less optimistic than everyone else.
Of course, with so many unknowns, the entire current crop of forecasts can be even more speculative than usual.
Find your cheapest fare today
You should compare extensively no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“If you look after your mortgage, you can make real savings. It may not sound like much, however Saving even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
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Mortgage interest methodology
Every day, The Mortgage Reports receives interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We get an average interest rate and APR for each loan type shown in our chart. As we average a range of rates, you'll get a better idea of what you might find on the market. In addition, we calculate the interest rates for the same types of credit. For example FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.