Today's mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates rose again yesterday, with some breaking the 3% mark, according to some sources. The rise was not as strong as on Tuesday. But it was still palpable and undesirable.
CNBC expected further noticeable increases in the short term last night. However, the markets could take a little breather today. And that's what we expect Mortgage rates could move little today. But that could change over the course of the hours.
Find and lock a low rate (February 18, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
Conventional 30 years fixed
Conventional 15 years fixed
Conventional set 20 years
Conventional 10 years fixed
Fixed FTA for 30 years
Fixed FTA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
30 years permanent VA
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate (February 18, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on the impact of Coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Yesterday, CNBC posted a story with two unsolicited messages. Quote:
Interest rates are rising in anticipation of better economic growth and should continue to rise moderately. The yield on 10-year government bonds, which affects mortgages and other loans, rose to 1.33% early Wednesday morning and could be as high as 1.5% in the short term
The risk of this becoming a turning point for interest rates seems unacceptably high to me. Of course, they could fall behind. But it would likely take something significant (see below) to bring them back to the all-time low of January 7th.
So I'm even more careful than usual. And my own The recommendations for the interest freeze are changing today to:
LOCK when you approach 7th DaysLOCK when you approach 15th DaysLOCK when you approach 30th DaysLOCK when you approach 45 DaysLOCK when you approach 60 Days
But with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your gut and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here's a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates compared to roughly the same time yesterday were:
The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 1.29% to 1.31%. (Bad for mortgage ratesMore than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recentlyImportant stock indices were lower when opened. (Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which lowers the prices of those bonds and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices have lower oil prices rose from $ 59.88 a barrel to $ 61.45. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a major role in causing inflation and also indicate future economic activity.) Gold prices dropped from $ 1,783 per ounce to $ 1,779. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good idea of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. However, this is no longer the case. The Fed is a big player now and a few days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or just on either side of the neutral line, likely up.
Find and lock a low rate (February 18, 2021)
Important Notes About Today's Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you need to know:
The continued intervention of the Fed in the mortgage market (well over $ 1 trillion) should continue to put pressure on these rates. But it can't always work miracles. And read: “For once, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why: "If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening, mortgage rates usually go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they're in trouble." There are exceptions, however. Read about how mortgage rates are determined and why you should care. Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates for which the listed lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time. When interest rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their interest rate cards the same. Refinancing rates are usually close to these for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
I am expects mortgage rates to end unchanged or barely changed today. But as always, that could change during the day.
We still can't be sure that the recent climbs will stay here. And it's easy to imagine that events could bring them back down: for example, a failure to put the pandemic relief package into effect. Or the emergence of a vaccine-resistant COVID-19 strain.
But without such a game changer, higher mortgage rates can last for a while. That does not mean that they will continue to rise as much as they have over the past few days. And of course there will be days when they do fall, because small ups and downs are a constant characteristic of these rates. But the prospect of all-time new lows seems a long way off.
For more background on how I continue to think, check out our latest weekend edition, which is released just after 10 a.m. (ET) every Saturday.
The general trend in mortgage rates has been falling significantly in recent months. A new weekly all-time low was set 16 times in the past year, according to Freddie Mac.
The latest such weekly record was set on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the prices went up. In Freddie's February 18 report, this weekly average is estimated at 2.81%, down from 2.73% the previous week and its highest level since mid-November.
Mortgage Forecast Experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed-rate mortgages with a term of 30 years. And Freddie's and the MBA's were released between January 14th and 20th, while Fannies was updated this morning:
Q1 / 21
Q2 / 21
Q3 / 21
Q4 / 21
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And in the course of the year the spread will certainly increase.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they only limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And chances are you can still find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It might not sound like much, but if you save even a quarter point on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new plan (February 18, 2021)
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners on a daily basis. We find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.