According to a new study, electric vehicles (EVs) will account for more than half of global car sales by 2033. By 2045, according to the researchers, vehicles with internal combustion engines will account for less than 1% of global new car sales.
The forecasts come from the consulting firm Ernst & Young. EY's Mobility Lens Forecaster study used a neural network to examine “consumer behavior, regulatory trends, technology development (vehicle and ecosystem), and announced manufacturer strategies” to make their predictions.
Europe will come first, says EY. "The latest predictions show that EV sales in Europe will outperform other powertrains by 2028, a trend that will repeat itself in China by 2033 and in the US by 2036."
COVID-19 brings with it a new type of buyer
The COVID-19 pandemic is a major contributor to AI predictions. "Many people who turned down ownership in lieu of carpooling and public transportation have reassessed in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic," explains EY.
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An earlier study published last November showed that “almost a third of non-car owners plan to buy a car in the next six months (19% plan to buy new cars, 12% are used cars), and about half of them are Millennials. ”
"Of current car owners and non-car owners, 30% said they would prefer a vehicle without an internal combustion engine (internal combustion engine) for their next purchase," says EY.
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Regulations that drive electric vehicles forward
Global changes in official regulations also contribute to this. "The UK has announced that it will ban the sale of ICE vehicles from 2030," notes EY, while "China continues to support electric vehicles through regulatory measures."
France, Germany, Spain, and Austria have all added EV incentives to their COVID-19 relief effort, reducing the cost of EVs for many buyers.
"The announcements by the new US administration include the continuity of the purchase incentives for electric vehicles and the development of the charging infrastructure," added EY. However, we would like to warn that the government's plans may not go through Congress.
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In the meantime, electric vehicles can win over some buyers simply because they quickly become competitive vehicles. "There are many more models coming out that are much more attractive," said Randy Miller, EY's global leader in advanced manufacturing and mobility. "They take that into account in the incentives, and these are the raw materials that drive that more optimistic view."
This story originally ran on KBB.com.