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The states' early withdrawal from state unemployment programs in recent weeks is helping Senate lawmakers to finance modernization of the country's infrastructure, according to the law presented on Sunday.
Twenty-six states, mostly Republicans, have withdrawn from pandemic-era programs since mid-June. The American Rescue Plan provided federal unemployment benefits through Labor Day – which expanded the pool of eligible workers and increased aid by $ 300 per week.
According to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office released in July, state deductions and an improving U.S. economy will save the federal government $ 53 billion in 2021 and 2022.
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Bipartisan Senate legislation – the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – cites the $ 53 billion as a source of funding. The bill, which costs $ 1 trillion, would provide money for roads, bridges, public transportation, broadband, rail, water and airports.
The unemployment savings come from a cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office in March that analyzed the impact of the US bailout.
"CBO predicted that all states would participate in the programs by September," said Phillip Swagel, director of the federal agency, in a July 16 letter to Senator Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz.
“Second, because of the improving economy, the agency has lowered its forecast of the unemployment rate, which has resulted in fewer projected beneficiaries for the programs; that also reduced the projected costs, ”wrote Swagel.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal government would save $ 50 billion in 2021 and $ 3 billion in 2022.
The withdrawal of the state from the unemployment programs has been controversial in recent months.
State officials began announcing their intended retirement in early May, citing labor shortages exacerbated by state benefit programs.
"Incentives are important, and the huge hikes in federal unemployment benefits are now doing more harm than good," said Governor Greg Gianforte of Montana, the first state to announce its withdrawal on May 4th.
Since then, 25 states have followed. All but one – Louisiana – have a Republican governor.
All of them ended up on an unemployment benefit hike of $ 300 a week. Most also stopped helping the long-term unemployed and others such as gig workers, self-employed and freelancers, all of whom are normally not eligible for government benefits.
However, critics of state decisions to end support early say other pandemic-era factors are likely to play a bigger role in setting difficulties businesses may face.
They point to examples such as persistent health concerns with Covid with a resurgent virus due to the highly contagious Delta variant and only half of the US population fully vaccinated; an inability to work due to inadequate childcare; and workers who moved from jobs or changed industries during the pandemic.
With the $ 300 addition, nearly half of the unemployed (48%) make as much or more money on unemployment benefits than their lost wages, according to a paper recently released by the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Institute.
The additional funds had little impact on job search among workers, "but had not significantly slowed the recovery in the labor market," said economists Fiona Greig, Daniel Sullivan, Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel and Joseph Vavra, who wrote the analysis. The paper examined data as of May 2021.
Initial evidence suggests that government policies did not push people back to work immediately, although economists say more data is needed to assess long-term effects.