What will stand in the way of market gains? Obviously not bad news about COVID-19 as investors try to look at the positive sides of these uncertain times.
Take this table, which shows how the Arizona cases from Pantheon Macroeconomics flattened out. Since this state has responded to a renewed increase in cases earlier than most, other severely affected states are likely to flatten out in the next few weeks:
Our Call of the day According to Thomas Lee, director of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the resilience of stocks over the past week shows that investors are "preparing for a more terrible path in relation to COVID-19."
Lee said in a message to clients: “The data shows how abruptly hedge funds switched to declining in June. Combined with a high level of cash for mutual funds, balanced funds have the highest cash balances (% of assets under management) since before 2009. So the fact that it could have been worse is a risk.
That doesn't mean there is no "tragedy" in the US, he said. "But the good news is that any country that is exposed to an outbreak is actually making" course adjustments. " In several states, bars close with serious outbreaks and reopening that were interrupted elsewhere.
“In our view, daily death statistics are the most important measure. And as long as the deaths remain unchanged and the states will peak in the next two to three weeks, it certainly seems to make sense, ”said Lee.
According to Lee, a combination of stocks near their highs and a cautious positioning means that investors should remain overweight. And while the earnings are about to start and they will be "bad" with little guidance, in his opinion everything has been telegraphed well.
Here are the drivers that Lee believes will move stocks higher:
BTIG chief strategist Julian Emanuel said in a note to his customers that the upcoming earnings season could be a “potential catalyst for performance revision” for two stock groups.
This outperformer – Amazon
and, above all, technology – more than 40% more since the beginning of the year – might think that nothing they report or say is "good enough" to sustain profits, says Emanuel.
Conversely, the reporting bar for these financial stocks and other underperformers – which has fallen 30% since the beginning of the year – could be so low that the only way for these stocks to go up, he says.
A famous Bollywood family has tested positive for COVID-19.
After the fighting was canceled, a Greek student went home on a bicycle for 48 days.
The viral video shows maskless British revelers on a Spanish island:
Actor John Travolta says his wife, actress Kelly Preston, died of cancer:
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