Record-low mortgage rates are likely to continue at the moment
Home buyers and refinancers saw record-breaking mortgage rates throughout 2020.
Interest rates have been lowered in large part due to COVID-19, which has no real end in sight.
This means that mortgage rates are likely to stay low through 2020 and beyond.
But could the 2020 elections mess things up? Many experts say yes.
Some even believe the election results could raise interest rates by 1% or more.
10 real estate experts predict that mortgage rates and the real estate market will kick in before the end of the year.
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Will mortgage and refinance rates change after the 2020 elections?
Presidents do not set mortgage rates. However, they set the tone for the economy, which indirectly affects whether mortgage rates go up or down.
The experts we interviewed disagreed on how much a Trump or Biden win could – if at all – affect mortgage rates.
However, when looking at their predictions on average, there was a clear trend: Experts predict lower rates if Trump is re-elected and slightly higher rates if Biden wins.
Average mortgage rate projections for the end of 2020
2020 election winner
Average 30 year mortgage rate forecast
Read on to learn why the industry experts we surveyed believe interest rates could go up or down depending on the election results.
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Expert predictions for mortgage rates and real estate markets for the end of 2020
We contacted 10 trusted real estate experts for their 30-year forecast of the fixed income mortgage and real estate market following the 2020 presidential election.
These predictions can help you buy a home or get refinance before the end of the year or 2021.
Dennis Shirshikov, Real Estate Analyst, Mortgage Rate Forecast: 3.5% -4%
Dennis Shirshikov is a real estate analyst at RealEstateWitch.com and an associate professor of economics at the City University of New York.
Mortgage Rate Prediction If Trump Wins: 3.5%
If Trump wins the election, “If Trump wins, the real estate market will slow down, but prices will go up. Housing policy will benefit investors and landlords through tax discounts. The Fed will raise interest rates, and mortgage rates will rise too. "
Mortgage rate prediction if Biden wins: 4%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “The real estate market will generally slow down and prices will remain stable. Housing policy will try to make lending more lenient. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and mortgage rates will rise too. "
Bruce Ailion, Broker, Mortgage Rate Prediction: 2.5% -3%
Bruce Ailion is a real estate attorney and broker.
Mortgage rate forecast if Trump wins:: 2.5%
If Donald Trump wins the election: “Real estate is Donald Trump's favorite industry. Conservative or liberal like him or hate him, agree with everything or nothing that he does. Trump is the ultimate real estate cheerleader. If he wins, you have an advocate for lower interest rates, lower taxes, and lower regulation. "
Predict Mortgage Rate If Biden Wins: About 3%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “The effects of a Biden win on real estate are less certain. We could see a further reduction in the mortgage interest deduction, and so could state, local, and property tax deductibility. I assume interest rates will stay low, but not as low as in a Trump presidency. "
Rick Sharga, Executive VP at RealtyTrac, mortgage rate forecast: 3.25% -3.5%
Rick Sharga is Executive Vice President at RealtyTrac.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Trump Wins: 3.25%
If Donald Trump wins the election, “Trump's second term will likely have very similar policies to the first: less regulatory scrutiny and tax incentives to stimulate real estate investment.
“The Trump administration has also discussed an expansion of the Qualified Opportunity Zones program launched several years ago, which provides capital relief for real estate development in underserved communities.
“The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Conservatory is likely to end in a Trump second term. This could make credit more readily available to more borrowers, but it could also make credit more expensive and slightly riskier. "
Mortgage rate prediction if Biden wins: 3.5%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “Biden has called for more government investment in affordable housing, which could be funded in part by revenue from home sales fees backed by government agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA.
“This would make buying a home a little more expensive for most people, but it could also provide affordable rental properties for people who are currently burdened with rent.
"It is also likely that Biden will reintroduce some of the regulations and consumer protection in the financial industry that have been removed or scrapped in recent years."
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Ryan Craft, CEO at Saluda Grade, Mortgage Rate Forecast: 3.25%
Ryan Craft is the founder and CEO of Saluda Grade, a real estate advisory firm.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Trump Wins: 3.25%
If Donald Trump wins the election, "A Trump victory means the continuation of the status quo – broad support for eviction moratoriums, executive office support for personal subsidies and facilities, and an administration that seems generally ready to do anything to stop the blow." to temper the economy. "
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Biden Wins: 3.25%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “Biden most likely will not change much about the eviction moratoria and broad leniency for homeowners affected by COVID. The current status of the American real estate market and its greatest sphere of influence, supply, are unlikely to change. "
Kurt Westfield, Managing Partner at WC Equity Group, mortgage rate forecast: ± 3%
Kurt Westfield is a Managing Partner at the WC Equity Group.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Trump Wins: About 3%
If Donald Trump wins the election, "Trump will make up for the losses caused by the coronavirus and quickly restore the position the economy was in before that black swan event." The Fed is likely to hike rates to contain excesses. The concern looming is the wave of foreclosures and evictions that are likely to occur if the moratorium and freezes are lifted. "
If Joe Biden wins the election, “The real estate market as a whole is likely to be less strong as subsidies are put in place to try to narrow the gap between the lower-income and the wealthy.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Biden Wins: Higher than 3%
“Creativity in the world of private capital is likely to dry up, causing the investment side of residential construction to stall while the residential side of home ownership is likely to remain relatively constant. Prices will rise, as will taxes. "
Ryan Fitzgerald, Owner of Raleigh Realty, Mortgage Rate Forecast: 3.25% -4%
Ryan Fitzgerald is the broker and owner of Raleigh Realty and UpHomes.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Trump Wins: 3.25%
If Donald Trump wins the election, "We'll see much of what we've seen over the past four years with lower interest rates and the ability to afford more and use more government and bank money." Housing policy should remain the same or similar to what it is now. Interest rates should stay low or possibly go down. "
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Biden Wins: 4%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “We'll see a decent year or two under Biden when it comes to the real estate market as a whole. However, smart money will start selling real estate so they won't have to pay the high taxes on houses and the property values that come with them. Land is likely to get significantly cheaper under Biden thanks to the increase in the property tax rate. Interest rates will rise along with property taxes. "
Guy Baker, Founder of the Wealth Teams Alliance, Mortgage Rate Prediction: 3% -4.1%
Guy Baker is the author and founder of the consulting firm Wealth Teams Alliance.
Mortgage Rate Prediction If Trump Wins: Approximately ~ 3%
If Donald Trump wins the election, “The economy is likely to improve, taxes will stay the same or go down, and inflation will continue to rise. The Fed is less likely to hike rates unless inflation gets out of hand. "
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Biden Wins: 4.1%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “Expect tax rates to rise, the Fed will offset rising inflation with higher tax rates and the economy will slow down. All of this will dampen demand for real estate. "
John Thompson, Dean of the National Institute of Financial Education, Mortgage Rate Prediction: High 2% – Low 3%
John Thompson is the founder of C2 Financial Corporation and the Dean of the National Institute of Financial Education.
Predicting Mortgage Rate If Trump Wins: High range from 2% to lower 3%
If Donald Trump wins the election, “We may see more accommodative policies on property retention and growth that favor investors rather than single-family home buyers. The entry points of the market will continue to be strong and resilient and we may see value challenges and price declines at the high end of the market. "
Predicting mortgage rates after the election: High range from 2% to lower 3%
If Joe Biden wins the election, “The government may have a more accommodating position to elements of the housing market when it comes to low to moderate income. These areas would likely see more support with a negative impact on higher priced properties as higher income properties are viewed as a tax option. "
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Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist, Redfin, Mortgage Rate Prediction: N / A
Daryl Fairweather is Redfin’s Chief Economist.
Housing forecast if Trump wins: Less development of affordable housing
If Donald Trump Wins The Election: “While the Trump administration previously advocated easing zoning regulations to encourage more buildings, President Trump recently turned around, arguing that local governments have taken steps to address that Loosening or eliminating the development of single-family houses threaten the suburbs.
"Given this shift in tone, we can assume that a second-term Trump administration will not be excited about developing more affordable housing."
Housing forecast, if Biden wins: More development of affordable housing and strengthening of the rules for fair living
If Joe Biden wins the election, “Biden's Housing Platform will include the use of federal housing grants to encourage states to adopt inclusive zoning that will make housing more affordable.
"Biden has proposed plans to reduce discriminatory practices in the housing industry and reintroduce the Obama era, recently ended by President Trump, into the affirmative promotion of fair housing."
Natalie Campisi, Senior Mortgage and Real Estate Specialist, Forbes Advisor, Mortgage Rate Prediction: N / A
Natalie Campisi is a senior mortgage and real estate professional at Forbes Advisor.
Housing forecast if Trump wins: relaxation of the rules for fair living and less support for affordable housing
If Donald Trump wins the election, “Expect the rules on fair living to relax. Trump's recent move to repeal the Fair Housing Promotion Rule, which aims to ensure that communities receiving HUD dollars, take policy action against discriminatory housing practices, is an indication of this.
"In addition, tough zoning laws – which have hampered building in many states – are unlikely to get any help from Trump as he has made several remarks about saving the suburbs from low-income housing."
Housing forecast if Biden wins: Expanded access to affordable housing and help for tenants
If Joe Biden wins the election, “Biden has a comprehensive housing plan that would affect the lives of almost all Americans. He has proposed expanding the home voucher program that helps the poorest Americans secure housing.
“It would also restrict single family home zoning for businesses receiving HUD dollars. Biden would also enact laws that allow tenants who pay more than 30 percent of their income and housing to get a tax deduction. "
Why Presidential Elections Affect Mortgage And Refinance Rates
You may not believe that a presidential election would affect your ability to buy a home. However, the experts say this could also have a minor impact on residential construction.
"The presidential elections and their results generally have an indirect impact on the real estate market – but not negligibly," says Sharga.
He explains, “In-depth management policies will generally affect the economy and people's financial prospects.
“For example, an administration taking office and planning to drastically increase government spending can drive interest rates to rise, making it less affordable to buy a home.
"On the other hand, a government announcing tax cuts could entice companies to invest in future growth and hire more employees – a cycle that often leads to these employees buying houses," Sharga says.
“The presidential elections and their results generally have an indirect, but not insignificant, impact on the real estate market. Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President of RealtyTrac
Natalie Campisi, Senior Mortgage and Real Estate Specialist at Forbes Advisor, notes that mortgage rates are not set by the President, but can be indirectly influenced by actions taken by the President.
"The president can influence the real estate market in other ways besides mortgage rates," she says.
"For example, Trump's tariffs on Canadian lumber have increased the cost of building materials, which has put more of a burden on new residential construction."
The fiscal and economic policy gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is wide.
Whoever wins will have a significant impact on how Wall Street and Main Street view the economy, Kurt Westfield believes.
"Each candidate's tax plans and employment plans will play a big role in the stagnation or continued growth of the economy as a whole, which can affect interest rates and the real estate market," Westfield says.
When is the right time to freeze a mortgage or refinance rate?
If you are looking to buy or refinance a home in the months ahead, your decision on when to move should depend on your financial willingness.
Interest rates are likely to remain extremely low, at least until the election, so it may be best to fund sooner rather than later.
But it's never a good idea to take out a mortgage if you're not quite ready. So if you're still getting your finances and credit in order, you can wait.
Prices can stay low for a long time. But even in the worst case scenario – let's say rates rise to 4%, the highest forecast we've got – they're still lower than almost all of US history. So those who are waiting to buy are probably not putting too much at stake.
For home buyers and refinancers already in the process, our advice remains the same:
Don't wait for interest rates to fall much further before locking them as they are unlikely to go down much.
Mortgage and refinance rates are already near record lows, and those who can meet today's rates are in a very good position.
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