Forecast plus today's mortgage rates
Average mortgagePrices dropped just a few centimeters yesterday. So you've barely moved since last Tuesday. But don't complain because they're stuck at incredibly low levels. The current interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan starts at 3.25% (3.25% APR).
Stock indices and government bond yields fell yesterday, suggesting mortgage rates will remain somewhat separate from the markets they traditionally follow. You can hope that we are only seeing a time lag and that major declines in these rates will be felt today. But you probably shouldn't rely on that.
Find and block current rates. (June 28, 2020)
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 5 year ARM
Fixed FHA for 30 years
FHA for 15 years
5 years ARM FHA
VA for 30 years
15 years fixed VA
5 years ARM VA
Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price quote. See our tariff assumptions here.
• COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Lenders change rates and rules based on COVID-19. For the latest information on the effects of coronavirus on your home loan, click here.
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Market data that affects (or doesn't) today's mortgage rates
Are mortgage rates closer to the markets they traditionally follow? It is too early to be sure. But when you are ready to follow them, things are like that search better for mortgage rates today. Here is the current state this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data compared to approximately the same time yesterday morning was:
The Yield on 10 year Treasuries fell from 0.71% to 0.66%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these special government bond yields, albeit more recently
Major stock indices were lower again. (Good for mortgage Prices.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers the prices of these stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
Oil prices fell from $ 39.95 to $ 37.91 a barrel (Good for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activities.)
Gold prices fell from $ 1,781 to $ 1,773 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for interest rates if gold goes up, and worse if gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut interest rates.
CNN Business Fear & Greed Index fell from 52 out of a possible 100 points to 47. (Good for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they leave the bond market and invest in stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of a few dollars in the price of gold or a question of the cent in the price of oil is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, we only count significant differences in mortgage rates as good or bad.
Important notes on today's mortgage rates
Of course, few purchases or refinancing qualify for the lowest interest rates found in some media and lender ads. These are usually only available to people with excellent credit scores, high down payments and solid finances (so-called top tier borrowers). And even then, the condition in which you buy can affect your rate.
Before blocking, however, anyone who buys or refinances can lose if interest rates rise, or win if interest rates fall.
When the movements are very small, many lenders don't bother to change their price lists. Instead, you may have to pay a little more or less to get compensation.
Overall, we still think it is possible that the Federal Reserve will cut rates further over time. However, there was a lot going on here before the green shoots of economic recovery became apparent. Now there is more. And as we saw recently, the Fed can only influence some of the forces that sometimes affect mortgage rates. So nothing is insured.
Read “Exceptionally, the Fed affects mortgage rates. Here's why you want to examine the key details of this organization's current, temporary role in the mortgage market.
Advice on the rate lock
My recommendation reflects the success of the Fed's measures so far. I personally suggest:
LOCK when you approach 7 Days
LOCK when you approach fifteen Days
HOVER when you approach 30th Days
HOVER when you approach 45 Days
HOVER when you approach 60 Days
But it's entirely up to you.
The Fed could cut rates further in the coming weeks, although this is far from certain. (Read on for the economists' forecasts.) And you can expect bad spots as they go up.
It is equally important that the corona virus has created massive insecurity – and disruptions that can defy all human efforts in the short term, including perhaps that of the Fed. Locking or floating is therefore a game of chance in both cases.
What economists expect from mortgage rates
So far this month, eeconomic reports The expectations of many economists may have changed. Pretty much everyone was shocked by the recent, much better than expected employment and retail sales numbers. However, many were disillusioned with the Federal Reserve's worrying forecasts for economic growth and employment on June 10.
It is too early to say that these have changed the economic landscape. However, read the following knowing that at least one of the cited forecasts was made long before any of these events.
Looks good … for most
On May 21, Realtor.com® chief economist Danielle Hale predicted low mortgage rates for the foreseeable future. Of course, it is unlikely that she thought there would be a continuous straight line that only went down. Some climbs on the way are almost inevitable.
"We expect mortgage rates to stay low and possibly go down," Hale said on Realtor.com. "We will flirt with the 3% threshold for a while before falling below it."
And she was already right. But of course not all experts share Hale's rosy view, at least in the medium term. In its own publication, Realtor.com, it recently said interest rates could soon rise below the current 3% level.
The following table shows forecasts from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Mortgage rate forecasts for 2020
The only function of the economic forecast is to make astrology appear respectable. – John Kenneth Galbraith, Harvard economist
Galbraith made clear statements about the economists' forecasts. But there is nothing wrong with taking them into account, seasoned appropriately with a pinch of salt. Who else will we ask when we make financial plans?
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the MBA each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their latest forecasts for the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage each quarter (Q1, Q2 …) in 2020. All (including Freddies, which is now a quarterly report) were released last week.
Suddenly Fannie Mae's optimism is the runaway. And nobody expects a quarterly average below the 3.0% mark this year.
What should you conclude from this? That nobody is sure about much, but that wild optimism about the direction of mortgage rates could be out of place.
The gap between the forecasts is real and widening as the forecasters look ahead. Fannie now expects this rate to average 2.9% next year, while Freddie expects 3.2%. And the MBA assumes that it will return to 3.5% in the last half of 2021. The MBA assumes that it will average 3.7% in 2022. You pay your money …
Nevertheless, all of these forecasts show significantly lower rates this year and next year than in 2019 when, according to Freddie Mac's archives, it averaged 3.94%.
And never forget that last year had the fourth lowest mortgage rates since records started. Better yet, this year could hit an all-time low.
Mortgages are more difficult to obtain
The mortgage market is currently very chaotic. And some lenders offer significantly lower interest rates than others.
Worse, many have restricted their loans. You may find it more difficult to find a payout refinance, an investment property loan, a jumbo loan, or a mortgage if your credit rating is compromised.
All of this makes it even more important than usual that you purchase your mortgage on a large scale and compare offers from several lenders.
This credit crunch in numbers
The Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, published by Fannie Mae on June 11thsuggested that the problem persists. The lender survey found: "The net share of lenders who reported loosening credit standards in both the past three months and the next three months declined significantly, reaching the low of the survey."
Published in the May report of the MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) June 9 tThe index fell less sharply than in April: by 3.1%. However, it is important to recognize that any decline represents a tightening of lenders' credit standards. So it may not get worse as quickly as it used to, but it will still get a little worse.
However, some see some light in this darkness. Two weeks ago, when National Mortgage Professional magazine held an expert panel discussion on mortgages for people with "past credit problems such as foreclosures, bankruptcy, late payments, or other isolated credit problems," there were knowledgeable attendees who expected the activity to revive soon.
Mortgage rates traditionally improve (decrease) the worse the economic outlook is. Where the economy is now and where it could go is relevant to rate observers.
And despite these recent, better-than-expected reports, there is unfortunately a lot of potentially bad news that could adversely affect the US economy and the global economy.
In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its global growth forecasts this year yesterday. And the global economy is expected to shrink by 4.9%, much worse than the 3% estimate in April.
The IMF's expectations of the US economy are even worse. The latest forecast for this assumes an expected decline of 8%. Is it a consolation that the eurozone countries with negative growth north of 10% will do even worse?
COVID-19 is still a major threat
The main driver of yesterday's sharp drop in equity markets was concerns about the country's impact on the pandemic. On Wednesday, the U.S. recorded the largest one-day increase in COVID-19 cases ever, according to the cOVID Tracking Project. The nationwide number increased by 38,762.
Some console themselves with the mortality rate, which does not increase as quickly. However, scientists warn that mortality always lags behind the infections.
And yesterday, Nicholas G. Reich, associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, told the Washington Post: “As long as a reasonable number of tests are done, there is an increase in Covid-19 infections. Then we are likely to see in the confirmed case data before we see it in the death data. "
Reich continued that he expected "… in many states where there is an increase in the number of deaths next month in cases like Texas, California, Florida and others, although the deaths have increased." either constant or stable have been declining in recent weeks. "
In other news, there was a brief market slip on Monday when White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox News that the trade agreement with China was "over". President Donald Trump quickly interfered with a tweet: “The China trade agreement is completely intact. Hopefully they will continue to meet the terms of the agreement! "
Although Navarro's slip-up may have been a mistake, he remains insightful. As we recently reported, relations between Washington DC and Beijing have been particularly tense lately. And last week, the US quarreled with European countries about taxing American companies. These inevitably increase the possibility of a new trade war, perhaps on two fronts.
Equally worrying is that an actual war is brewing on the border between India and China. These (both nuclear powers) are the two largest countries in the world by population and rank second and fifth in terms of gross domestic product (GDP).
The most recent economic data looked good. For example, recent employment and retail sales were far better than most economists expected. But you have to see them in their wider context.
First, they follow catastrophic lows. They expect record profits after record losses. Second, the pandemic is far from over. Some states are still seeing an alarming number of new cases and deaths.
Good news is more than welcome, but it can mask the devastation caused by COVID-19 in the economy.
Some concerns that remain are:
We are currently officially in recession
Unemployment is expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Over the past two Thursdays, new weekly unemployment claims have actually been worse than expected
On June 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's current GDPNow ™ resource estimated its real GDP growth forecast for the current quarter at -45.5% (yes, that's a minus).
On June 1, the Congress budget office reduced its expectations for US growth between 2020 and 2030. Compared to its forecast in January, the CBO now expects America to miss $ 7.9 trillion in growth this decade becomes
As we have been saying for a few days, not only are we not out of the forest yet, we may not have any idea where their limits are.
Exactly this assessment was confirmed yesterday by IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, who said: “We are definitely not out of the woods. This is a crisis like no other and will recover like no other. "
What form will a recession take?
Economists argue about the shape (if you imagined it in a graph) that the recession could take.
For a while, a V-shaped (sharp plunge and sharp recovery) was the favorite. And it's still for some. In fact, they can clean themselves up well according to the latest employment and retail reports.
However, other shapes are also available. Some therefore think a W is more likely, especially if a second wave of coronavirus infections occurs after the early end of the lock. A “Nike Swoosh” (based on the company's famous logo) is becoming increasingly popular. This is a sharp decline followed by a gradual recovery.
But on May 29, the New York Times asked everyone, "Swooshes and Vs. The future of the economy is a question mark. "What it meant to stop arguing because nobody has a clue.
Markets don't seem to be linked to reality – do they?
June 16The controversial, Nobel Prize-winning Princeton economist Paul Krugman wrote this for the New York Times:
What do these investors think? I don't think they think – not really. Financial reporting conventions more or less require articles about market action to attribute rationality to investors, so stock movements are attributed to optimism about the economic recovery or something else. However, the reality is that they are mostly young men, many of whom have sports betting backgrounds and bought the stocks and are optimistic because they have made money so far.
On June 14, CNN Business reported that only an online broker, TD Ameritrade, had done so opened 608,000 new accounts in the first quarter of this year. That was more than twice as much as in the previous quarter. Some, like Krugman, see this in response to the ban, as inexperienced and unknown amateur investors gather in a high-risk environment.
Economic reports this week
Perhaps due to this surge of inexperienced investors, markets have shaken off unwanted economic reports in the past few months and only responded to those that contain positive information. This could well go on this week.
In more normal times, Friday would be the most important day for news. Then the figures for May come for personal income, consumer spending and core inflation. It also brings the final reading of the consumer sentiment index for this month.
Predictions are important
Typically, any economic report can move the markets as long as it contains news that is shockingly good or devastatingly bad – provided that the news is unexpected.
This is because markets tend to evaluate analyst consensus forecasts (hereinafter we use those reported by MarketWatch) before the reports are released. Therefore, it is usually the difference between the numbers actually reported and the forecast that has the greatest effect.
And this means that even an extreme difference between the actual values of the previous reporting period and this can have a slight immediate impact, provided that this difference is expected and has been taken into account in advance.
This week's calendar
This week's calendar of major domestic economic reports includes:
Monday: May Existing home sales (Annualized actual 3.91 million homes sold; forecast 3.80 million)
Tuesday: May Selling new houses (Annualized actual 676,000 new homes sold; forecast 650,000)
Wednesday: April Home price index from the Federal Housing Agency (actual change of + 5.5% compared to the previous year; no forecast). plus IMF Economic forecasts (IMF) (U.S. economy is expected to shrink by 8.0% in 2020; no forecast)
Thursday: Weekly unemployment benefits until June 20 (1.48 Millions of new claims; Forecast 1.38 million). Third and last reading by gross domestic product for the first quarter (currently –5.0%; Forecast -5.0%, as before)
Friday: May report for personal income (Forecast -7.0%), Consumer spending (Forecast + 9.9%) and Core inflation (Forecast + 0.1%). Plus revised June Consumer sentiment index (Forecast 79.3 index points)
If the markets follow the latest form, they will pick the good news in these reports and ignore the bad.
Rate lock recommendation
The basis for my suggestion
I suggest that you Lock if you are less than 15 days after closing. But let's look at a personal assessment of a risk assessment here: do the dangers outweigh the possible rewards?
At the moment, the Fed seems to be mostly on top of things (although recent rises have shown the limits of its power). And I think it will probably stay that way, at least in the medium term.
However, this does not mean that there will be no disturbances on the way. It is quite possible that mortgage rates will rise in times when not all of them can be controlled by the Fed.
So I suggest a 15-day cutoff. In my opinion, this optimizes your chances of driving uphill and taking advantage of falls. But it's really just a personal point of view.
Only you can choose
And of course, financially conservative borrowers may want to block immediately, almost regardless of when they will close. After all, current mortgage rates are at record lows, and a lot is secured.
On the other hand, risk takers might prefer to wait their time and take a chance of falling in the future. But only you can decide which risk you feel personally comfortable with.
If you are still floating, stay alert until you lock. Make sure your lender is ready to act as soon as you press the button. And keep an eye on mortgage rates.
When should you block anyway?
You may still want to lock your loan if you buy a house and have a higher debt-to-income ratio than most others. In fact, you should tend to lock because rate hikes could void your mortgage approval. Refinancing is less critical and you may be able to play and hover.
If your degree is weeks or months away, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. If you know interest rates are going up, of course you want to lock yourself in as soon as possible. However, the longer your lock is, the higher your upfront costs will be. On the other hand, if a higher interest rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you probably want to lock yourself in, even if it costs more.
If you're still floating, stay in close contact with your lender.
Through Wednesday, in this daily article, we have provided information about the additional help borrowers can receive during the pandemic as they near the end.
You can still access all of this information and more in a new, standalone article:
What causes interest rates to rise and fall?
In normal times (not now), mortgage rates depend heavily on investor expectations. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates as an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed income assets like bonds to lose value and their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to rise.
For example, suppose you bought a $ 1,000 bond two years ago and paid 5% interest ($ 50) each year. (This is called the "Coupon Rate" or "Par Rate" because you paid $ 1,000 for a $ 1,000 bond and because the interest rate is the rate shown on the bond – 5% in this case).
Your interest rate: $ 50 APR / $ 1,000 = 5.0%
When interest rates fall
That's a pretty good rate today, so many investors want to buy it from you. You can sell your $ 1,000 bond for $ 1,200. The buyer receives the same $ 50 a year in interest you received. It's still 5% of the $ 1,000 coupon. However, since he paid more for the bond, his return is lower.
Your buyer's interest rate: $ 50 APR / $ 1,200 = 4.2%
The buyer receives an interest rate or a return of only 4.2%. And that's why interest rates go down as bond demand increases and bond prices rise.
When interest rates go up
However, as the economy warms up, inflation potential makes bonds less attractive. When fewer people want to buy bonds, their prices fall and then interest rates rise.
Imagine that you have your $ 1,000 bond but cannot sell it for $ 1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are rising. In the end, you get $ 700. The buyer receives the same $ 50 a year in interest, but the return looks like this:
$ 50 APR / $ 700 = 7.1%
The buyer's interest rate is now just over 7%. Interest rates and returns are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.
Mortgage Interest FAQ
What are today's mortgage rates?
The average mortgage rate today is only 3.125% (3.125% APR) for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate loan. Of course, your own interest rate will likely be higher or lower depending on factors such as your down payment, credit rating, type of loan and more.
Are mortgage rates rising or falling?
Mortgage rates have been extremely volatile recently due to the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy. Interest rates fell recently when the Fed announced generally low interest rates for the next two years. However, interest rates could rise slightly if mortgage applications increased again or if the economy started to pick up again.
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports receive daily interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners. We determine an average rate and an annual interest rate for each loan type that should be shown in our chart. Since we calculate a number of rates, you get a better idea of what you could find on the market. We also calculate the interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.
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